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Blackberry -- A Dormant Giant
Abbreviation Index:
BB -- Blackberry AWS -- Amazon Web Services IVY -- Intelligent Vehicles Yo. I don't actually know if this stands for anything QNX -- Quick-Unix perhaps? It's a Unix-like embedded microkernel RTOS (real-time operating system) EOY -- end of year PT -- price target SP -- stock price EV -- electric vehicle SoC -- System on a Chip IoT -- Internet of Things TL;DR: Blackberry ($BB) is almost daily announcing new partnerships and new clients for their software, including new deals with companies that are just now or just this year launching autonomous vehicles that run on QNX software. The big kahuna of all these deals is BB's recent partnership with Amazon to go 50/50 into BB's software IVY, a scalable cloud-connected software platform designed for intelligent vehicle data gathering and data sharing. With Amazon's Jeff Bezos stepping down, and Andy Jassy filling his shoes, who was the CEO of AWS, BB will have some very firm support behind Amazon's new CEO. BB and Amazon are having a webinar Feb. 23rd about their partnership and IVY, which should be a strong catalyst moving forward. IVY beta earnings are projected to begin impacting BB's Q3 or Q4 earnings beginning in November this year, with IVY fully being integrated around the 2023 timeframe. Through a lot of reading and analysis, I believe BB has a four-tiered business model dating back as far as 2013 when BB's CEO John Chen was hired to begin the massive BB turnaround process. Tier 1 was development of QNX and IVY, lasting from 2013 to today and onward, however, Tier 2 overlaps Tier 1. Tier 2 was customer acquisition, primarily distributing their secure software in QNX, SecuSuite, Spark, and AtHoc. They secured 37 automakers during this time, including 9 of the top 10 automakers, over 106 governments from around the world, including all of G7 governments and 18 of G20 governments, as well as 77% of Fortune 100 companies, including partnerships with Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Sony, XPENG, XPEV, NVIDIA, Intel, Qualcomm, Baidu, IBM, LG, Samsung, and others. Well if they have such an incredible market share, why are they so undervalued? The answer is that QNX was not the end-all-be-all product. It was the base that the rest would be built on. Particularly IVY, which is the real money-maker. Tier 3 is IVY beta, and Tier 4 is IVY distribution and subscription revenue streams. So why is IVY the big deal and not QNX? They are both big deals, but QNX was never designed to be the money-maker. They are charging a one-time fee per vehicle use. There is a bigger goal here, to secure their clients as their customers for the bigger product in IVY. They also need QNX is to be a secure system in order for IVY to be trustworthy and reliable. And it certainly is secure. QNX has ISO26262 certification, as well as US government clearance, NSA clearance, and CIA clearance. The US government uses QNX and Blackberry products. Just let that sink in. That should tell you something about its security. Anyways, IVY will be used in autonomous vehicle level 4 and level 5 communication (note that QNX is level 5 certified... it has a business moat just in its security level and clearance), as well as EV and gas vehicle data collecting and AI-powered data synthesis. See below for more details on IVY. Wrapping up this TL;DR, BB is going to do well this year as IVY unfolds, but will do even better in the next 2-5 years. I have a PT of 25 by EOY and a PT of 80 by 2023 EOY, and a PT of 160+ by 2025 EOY TL;DR: TL;DR: BB go up, but go slow for now because IVY revenue not here yet, but big fast later. Make big monies, BB is the future tech that Amazon, Microsoft, Google, etc will be building upon in the EV and IoT market
FAQs:
1) Why is Blackberry stock price going down? A: A few possible reasons. One, as of today the whole market is down. BB is connected to overall market swings as most companies are. Two, there may be some market manipulation by bearish financial institutions as there are a lot of calls expiring on 2/19. I would expect that BB SP to be volatile between $11 and $14 between now and then, and to move upwards after 2/19 and especially after 2/23 (Amazon + BB webinar). Three, there are bearish investors who still think BB is a phone company and don't understand the underworkings of BB's business strategy, their software, their patents, or their partners. Their revenue has been affected by coronavirus and has not been particularly phenomenal so far this year. 2) Should I invest now or later? A: First off, I'm not a financial advisor, these are just my opinions. Invest at your own risk. In my opinion, BB will see a large SP growth by EOY, anywhere from 50% to 150% growth by EOY. While revenue will likely not increase much this year, the partnership with Amazon and news regarding IVY will likely create new floors for their SP much higher than the current SP right now, at around the $12 SP 3) What's stopping competitors from building a similar product and hurting BB's business? A: There's a lot of reasons why BB has a huge moat right now. One, notice the partners that BB has with QNX. They've got all the big boys working them, aside from Apple and Tesla. Seeing as SpaceX runs on QNX, and seeing that Apple was trying to make a deal with Hyundai that did not go through, I think it is still possible that either Tesla or Apple or both companies could also make a deal with BB to use QNX as their OS system. BB worked to develop their QNX embedded microkernel OS for the last eight years or so. Anyone trying to step into the game now is far too late. Apple has the best chance of all companies, as it has its own OS and Apple knows security very well, but this still requires an entirely new system in order to work in the EV sector. Also, Apple announced recently that they would be developing their own EV, although they did not give much details beyond that statement. The likelihood that they are both working on the hardware and software side of this thing is slim given the large number of difficulties that come with certification as it relates to the cybersecurity software space. Regardless, I would suspect that either Apple or Tesla is the most likely to be competitors in this space, but neither company has successfully completed a certified OS system, particularly for the emerging sector of autonomous EVs. Tesla is currently building a Linux-based system that is having a lot of difficulty in passing certifications such as ISO26262, a struggle that has been ongoing for years now. They may achieve a product that passes these safety regulations and certifications, but the question remains whether this will be in time as the EV and autonomous market picks up speed, and whether competing companies would even be interested in using their product. In fact, any car company is unlikely to develop their own OS software because none of their competitors would be likely to use it. BB is the perfect business to license since it is not competing in the hardware sector for the EV market. This argument can also be used for Apple if they are also building an EV. 4) Why is BB's revenue so low if they have so many customers and partners? A: QNX has been licensed so far as a one-time purchase, per vehicle or IoT using their software. IVY will be a subscription-based software that also includes a one-time purchase. Thus, BB's revenue streams are somewhat unimpressive currently, but they are playing the long game. If my hypothesis is correct, it is John Chen's goal to lay low as software is developed and customer relationships are built. It's the same with the book market. It's the sequel that makes all the money, not the first book. QNX is just the first book of a series looking to hook in its customers with low costs before hitting 'em with the strong follow up in IVY. Additionally, in order to build a competitive business moat, it was to their advantage to not forewarn any competitors of their involvement and plans. Consider John Chen's work as a CEO in his last business Sybase. Chen worked as the CEO of Sybase for 10 years. For the first 7 years, the SP remained at around $10 a share. Three years later, the SP was at $100 a share. I suspect he is implementing a similar model with Blackberry. Chen joined Blackberry in 2013. BB stock actually dropped for most of the last 7 years, resting at a stock price of around $5. Now BB is at $12 a share. I would not be surprised if BB reaches $50 two years from now.
Blackberry Clients and Partners Automakers: Honda, Audi, Jeep, Mitsubishi, Ford, Hyundai, Volkswagen, Bentley, Lamboghini, Byton, Mini (cooper), Toyota, Subaru, Fiat Chrysler, Mazda, Nio, BMW, Porsche, Lexus, Kia, Land-Rover, Mercedes-Benz, Buick, Jaguar, Visteon, Skoda, Chevrolet, Nissan, Acura, Continental, General Motors, Baidu, Motional Other: Denso, Aptiv, Bosch, Panasonic, Harman, Bugatti, LG, Vodafone, Bell, Carahsoft, CACI, Telus, iSec, KPMG, Tableau, Qlik Major: Amazon, Google, Sony, XPENG, XPEV, Li Auto, NVIDIA, Canoo, Microsoft, Intel, Verizon, Qualcomm, IBM, LG, Samsung Major Investors: PRIMECAP, Hamblin Watsa, Ontario Teachers’ Pension, Vanguard, Harris Associates, ETF Managers Group, Wells Capital, Arrowstreet Capital, Kahn Brothers Advisors, Norges Bank Investment Governments: Albania, Andorra, Angola, Argentina, Australia, Austria, Bahrain, Belarus, Belgium, Benin, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Botswana, Brazil, Brunei, Bulgaria, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Canada, Congo, Croatia, Czech Republic, DR Congo, Denmark, Egypt, Estonia, Finland, France, Gabon, Germany, Ghana, Gibraltar, Greece, Guadeloupe, Hong Kong, Hungary, Indonesia, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Kenya, Kuwait, Latvia, Lesotho, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Macau, Macedonia, Malawi, Malaysia, Mali, Malta, Marthinique, Mauritania, Mauritus, Mayotte, Mexico, Moldova, Monaco, Montenegro, Morocco, Mozambique, Namibia, Netherlands, Netherlands Antilles, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Oman, Philippines, Poland, Portugal, Qatar, Romania, Russia, Réunion, Saint Barthélemy, Saint Martin, San Marino, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Serbia, Singapore, Slovakia, Slovenia, South Africa, Spain, Swaziland, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Tanzania, Thailand, Togo, Turkey, USA, Uganda, Ukraine, United Arab Emirates, United Kingdom, Uruguay, Vatican City, Western Sahara, Zambia, Zimbabwe
Blackberry Current Revenues:
BlackBerry Revenues: How Does BlackBerry Make Money? -- Trefis This display the biggest bearish argument to BB. Until IVY begins producing new revenue streams, BB is likely to not exponentially increase revenue streams, but only sustain moderate YoY growth
Blackberry Analysis Regarding Infotainment and Google and Ford Deal:
see "Blackberry (BB) Stock News Analysis | What I need to say..." by Financial Live by LEYA on the forbidden video website The media recently picked out a story that left out a lot of pertinent information, making it seems that BB lost Ford as a client. This is not true. QNX is designed to be a SoC. This means that other operating systems, such as Linux or Android, can be easily added to QNX. It is in fact encouraged. The Ford and Google deal was simply announcing the Ford would be using Android as their infotainment system. I believe that BB was never intended to try and be the predominant entity for all software systems in EVs or IoTs, but the backbone that connects all together, and to protect all components in a secure system. Autonomous EVs and even regular EVs in general would not be possible without a secure system protecting the product, as is true with IoTs. This is also why things like US Fighter Jets run on... you guess it, QNX. Ford is still using QNX. It is simply also now using Android that is running on top of QNX more commentary on this: Analyzing Blackberry Bear Argument - Case No. 1: Ford Deal
Image This is an interesting one to be sure. Facebook was being evil, like the do, and were caught using a number of BB patents. They settled in February, and the day that the settlement was finalized, John Chen (BB CEO) tweeted reminding everyone that BB is used on the ISS https://twitter.com/JohnChen/status/1358853064153784321?s=20 Well, the connection and speculation here is that Blackberry is going to the moon, and that the settlement is rather significant. Someone else also dug out some information in Facebook's most recent 10-K, specifically a portion for a 'non-cancelable contractual commitment' of an amount of $7500 million dollars. That's 7.5 billion btw. We don't know how big the settlement is, but it is worth noting that BB's entire market cap is 7.5B. I highly doubt that a settlement would reach such lofty numbers, but it could be possible that FB settled for some initial amount of $1B or so, as well as $1B in reoccurring payments over several years. We won't know until March 15th actually, so stay tuned.
Blackberry New Partnerships
Within the last few weeks, Blackberry has announced a stronger partnership with Baidu (China's Google), as well as their involvement with Baidu choosing to use QNX for their autonomous vehicles that will be hitting the road, as early as this year and next. BB has also announced their involvement with Motional, a joint venture between Hyundai and Aptiv, which will use QNX for their autonomous vehicles. Motional will be partnering with Lyft to use autonomous vehicles to begin serving customers and will be deploying their vehicles in 2023. It was also announced that QNX will be working with AOSP (Android Open Source Project), as well as announcing yesterday that QNX Hypervisor 2.2 is now released, which is what allows Android and Linux to run on top of QNX. A sum-up of all the recent news on $BB
Rumor: Blackberry Buyout? Here's why that's not happening:
Just read this post. It's quite revealing: Great Day for BB despite stick dipping. TL;DR: Amazon could have easily bought BB. Why didn't they? Well, all the big players are interested in this EV and IoT emerging sector. This is the new wave of technology that will dominate the market. First we had the dot.com boom, then the cell-phone and smart-phone market, and now we have the autonomous EV and IoT market. If Amazon were to buy BB, they would have to submit a tender offer. This would be a red flag to all the big players that Amazon were trying to buy up the best security out there. It would be a bidding war that could result in a double-digit multi-billion dollar buyout. It was much more to their advantage to create a secret alliance with BB and establish a 50/50 partnership, whose contract includes exclusivity for their use of IVY. Ouch! That's gotta hurt. This is where the importance of QNX lies. BB will be able to pull the rug out from any company that chooses to use something other than IVY. No IVY, no QNX, no EV. It will be a package deal where IVY is the big money maker. All other companies will have to build from the ground up or be forced to license QNX and make their money off of other sectors, such as the infotainment sector, as Google has already begun to do with the Ford deal. When this deal happened, the other big boys wet their pants realizing they needed to get into this space, and fast. Microsoft partnered with Cruise/GM. Apple tried to partner with Hyundai, who was so flattered, they may have initially said yes or indicated so, before realizing that they were already partnered with BB, so it was a no-go. Not sure if that is fact or fiction, but it is an interesting proposal.
Blackberry IVY + AWS Partnership:
Alright, so what's the deal with IVY? Why is it going to be so profitable? Why is IVY the real money-maker, while QNX has been used as the customer-acquisition software tool? Check out this picture: Image For one, IVY is designed for real-time communication between EVs or other IoTs. Autonomous driving level 5 requires vehicles to communicate with one another. This is where IVY comes in. IVY connects the different software components of an EV (which presumably are running on QNX), as well as harvesting data on those systems. The data used can be distributed for a wide-variety of uses, including, but not limited to, automakers and suppliers, app developers, consumer services, smart cities, EV charging providers, insurance companies, and vehicle maintenance providers. All of these different sectors will be willing to pay subscriptions for these data services, as well as the automakers and IoT makers who will also be willing to pay subscriptions for IVY. For instance, IVY can help share information between vehicles that will allow for a car detecting ice roads in one area so that other cars using IVY can take a different route. This results in less crashes, which helps the automakers. Insurance companies can use data from all these different data points as well, allowing them an inside-view of their clients. The list of what is possible here is inexhaustible. As for price points, the subscription models for multiple outside companies wanting to use the data will be create huge revenue streams for BB. With Amazon as a 50/50 partner, and with their resources and strategic management, BB will be poised to be the foundation in security and data sharing for the entire EV, and somewhat of the IoT market (the IoT market has more competitors for sure) see "Is BlackBerry Stock Undervalued?" by Wealthy Mindset on the forbidden video website see "Roadmap to $180 a share (BlackBerry Stock)" by Wealthy Mindset on the forbidden video website
Revenue, revenue, revenue...
Blackberry is poised to be an industry leader in EV, government, and IoT security and data sharing with products such as QNX, IVY, Spark, and their other software products. Stock price will likely stay somewhat stunted until IVY revenue begins picking up. It is possible that more announcements and marketing related to IVY will make this growth more rapid. In my opinion, either way BB over the next 5 years will 10x. The question is whether you want to get in now at $12 / share or two years from now at $40 a share or something similar, assuming that either way this stock is going to push for that 100B market cap (it's currently at 7B). There will be bearish analysts that will continue to say that Blackberry is a worthless company until those IVY revenue streams begin to come in. It is also possible that a realistic competitor may emerge within the next three years, such as Tesla or Apple. But if Apple is seeking to create its own EV product, then both companies will have a hard time finding any way to license their software to any other company. It remains possible that Apple and/or Tesla may strikes deals with BB as well in order to be able to produce autonomous vehicles and get a bite of that market share
Really, no competitors?
Well it's called a business moat for a reason. As we have recently seen, QNX is working with AOSP, and so clearly, they are not to be worried about. Tesla is not a true competitor as their OS product is not certified yet, and has demonstrated difficulty in doing so, and additionally, other automakers will not want to benefit their competitors by using their product. A third-party non-auto-maker will be much more desirable. Other companies such as VxWorks, have a lot of to prove both in security and certifications, as well as producing an OS product that is compatible with an emerging autonomous level 5 EV market. QNX's embedded microkernel RTOS is very much unique in this regard. This type of system allows for real-time processing and power distribution, while protecting the system from attacks. In an embedded microkernel system, if one part of the system is attacked, the whole system will not shut down, in layman's terms. This is essential for the security of any high-risk product that is built upon an underlying software that controls that different components of the system.
Conclusion:
All eyes are turned towards Blackberry right now. People want to know what this deal with Amazon will look like, how it will work, what they will focus on, (will Amazon also use this system for a fleet of delivery drones? hmmm), what the revenue streams will look like, what are their projections, what markets and sectors are they targeting, what are their future goals, what will Amazon be doing on their end, etc, etc. The Amazon + BB webinar may answer some of those questions, or maybe they won't. Time will tell (Feb. 23rd, specifically -- here's a link to sign up and watch: Next-Gen Vehicle Architectures Unlock Unprecedented Opportunities for Automakers). Also look out for that FB settlement numbers on March 15th, and Q4 earnings March 31st. I don't expect Q4 earnings to be particularly interesting unless they include the FB settlement numbers. Could those numbers instead be put into Q1 earnings for 2021? Possibly. Initially IVY beta is expected to begin being released late this year. I will also be looking forward to see how Apple and Tesla respond in the coming months. Ultimately, BB is a long-term play, but is poised to dominate this emerging industry with the partnerships and security focused software they have secretly been building. Now if only the could do something about their logo, some rebranding would be nice... This is not financial advice, just my own opinions. I am not a financial advisor nor a professional. I own 14k shares in Blackberry, as well as options (10x 8/17/21 20c BB). Do your own DD and fact check me as well
BB -- Blackberry AWS -- Amazon Web Services IVY -- Intelligent Vehicles Yo. I don't actually know if this stands for anything QNX -- Quick-Unix perhaps? It's a Unix-like embedded microkernel RTOS (real-time operating system) EOY -- end of year PT -- price target SP -- stock price EV -- electric vehicle SoC -- System on a Chip IoT -- Internet of Things TL;DR: Blackberry ($BB) is almost daily announcing new partnerships and new clients for their software, including new deals with companies that are just now or just this year launching autonomous vehicles that run on QNX software. The big kahuna of all these deals is BB's recent partnership with Amazon to go 50/50 into BB's software IVY, a scalable cloud-connected software platform designed for intelligent vehicle data gathering and data sharing. With Amazon's Jeff Bezos stepping down, and Andy Jassy filling his shoes, who was the CEO of AWS, BB will have some very firm support behind Amazon's new CEO. BB and Amazon are having a webinar Feb. 23rd about their partnership and IVY, which should be a strong catalyst moving forward. IVY beta earnings are projected to begin impacting BB's Q3 or Q4 earnings beginning in November this year, with IVY fully being integrated around the 2023 timeframe. Through a lot of reading and analysis, I believe BB has a four-tiered business model dating back as far as 2013 when BB's CEO John Chen was hired to begin the massive BB turnaround process. Tier 1 was development of QNX and IVY, lasting from 2013 to today and onward, however, Tier 2 overlaps Tier 1. Tier 2 was customer acquisition, primarily distributing their secure software in QNX, SecuSuite, Spark, and AtHoc. They secured 37 automakers during this time, including 9 of the top 10 automakers, over 106 governments from around the world, including all of G7 governments and 18 of G20 governments, as well as 77% of Fortune 100 companies, including partnerships with Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Sony, XPENG, XPEV, NVIDIA, Intel, Qualcomm, Baidu, IBM, LG, Samsung, and others. Well if they have such an incredible market share, why are they so undervalued? The answer is that QNX was not the end-all-be-all product. It was the base that the rest would be built on. Particularly IVY, which is the real money-maker. Tier 3 is IVY beta, and Tier 4 is IVY distribution and subscription revenue streams. So why is IVY the big deal and not QNX? They are both big deals, but QNX was never designed to be the money-maker. They are charging a one-time fee per vehicle use. There is a bigger goal here, to secure their clients as their customers for the bigger product in IVY. They also need QNX is to be a secure system in order for IVY to be trustworthy and reliable. And it certainly is secure. QNX has ISO26262 certification, as well as US government clearance, NSA clearance, and CIA clearance. The US government uses QNX and Blackberry products. Just let that sink in. That should tell you something about its security. Anyways, IVY will be used in autonomous vehicle level 4 and level 5 communication (note that QNX is level 5 certified... it has a business moat just in its security level and clearance), as well as EV and gas vehicle data collecting and AI-powered data synthesis. See below for more details on IVY. Wrapping up this TL;DR, BB is going to do well this year as IVY unfolds, but will do even better in the next 2-5 years. I have a PT of 25 by EOY and a PT of 80 by 2023 EOY, and a PT of 160+ by 2025 EOY TL;DR: TL;DR: BB go up, but go slow for now because IVY revenue not here yet, but big fast later. Make big monies, BB is the future tech that Amazon, Microsoft, Google, etc will be building upon in the EV and IoT market
FAQs:
1) Why is Blackberry stock price going down? A: A few possible reasons. One, as of today the whole market is down. BB is connected to overall market swings as most companies are. Two, there may be some market manipulation by bearish financial institutions as there are a lot of calls expiring on 2/19. I would expect that BB SP to be volatile between $11 and $14 between now and then, and to move upwards after 2/19 and especially after 2/23 (Amazon + BB webinar). Three, there are bearish investors who still think BB is a phone company and don't understand the underworkings of BB's business strategy, their software, their patents, or their partners. Their revenue has been affected by coronavirus and has not been particularly phenomenal so far this year. 2) Should I invest now or later? A: First off, I'm not a financial advisor, these are just my opinions. Invest at your own risk. In my opinion, BB will see a large SP growth by EOY, anywhere from 50% to 150% growth by EOY. While revenue will likely not increase much this year, the partnership with Amazon and news regarding IVY will likely create new floors for their SP much higher than the current SP right now, at around the $12 SP 3) What's stopping competitors from building a similar product and hurting BB's business? A: There's a lot of reasons why BB has a huge moat right now. One, notice the partners that BB has with QNX. They've got all the big boys working them, aside from Apple and Tesla. Seeing as SpaceX runs on QNX, and seeing that Apple was trying to make a deal with Hyundai that did not go through, I think it is still possible that either Tesla or Apple or both companies could also make a deal with BB to use QNX as their OS system. BB worked to develop their QNX embedded microkernel OS for the last eight years or so. Anyone trying to step into the game now is far too late. Apple has the best chance of all companies, as it has its own OS and Apple knows security very well, but this still requires an entirely new system in order to work in the EV sector. Also, Apple announced recently that they would be developing their own EV, although they did not give much details beyond that statement. The likelihood that they are both working on the hardware and software side of this thing is slim given the large number of difficulties that come with certification as it relates to the cybersecurity software space. Regardless, I would suspect that either Apple or Tesla is the most likely to be competitors in this space, but neither company has successfully completed a certified OS system, particularly for the emerging sector of autonomous EVs. Tesla is currently building a Linux-based system that is having a lot of difficulty in passing certifications such as ISO26262, a struggle that has been ongoing for years now. They may achieve a product that passes these safety regulations and certifications, but the question remains whether this will be in time as the EV and autonomous market picks up speed, and whether competing companies would even be interested in using their product. In fact, any car company is unlikely to develop their own OS software because none of their competitors would be likely to use it. BB is the perfect business to license since it is not competing in the hardware sector for the EV market. This argument can also be used for Apple if they are also building an EV. 4) Why is BB's revenue so low if they have so many customers and partners? A: QNX has been licensed so far as a one-time purchase, per vehicle or IoT using their software. IVY will be a subscription-based software that also includes a one-time purchase. Thus, BB's revenue streams are somewhat unimpressive currently, but they are playing the long game. If my hypothesis is correct, it is John Chen's goal to lay low as software is developed and customer relationships are built. It's the same with the book market. It's the sequel that makes all the money, not the first book. QNX is just the first book of a series looking to hook in its customers with low costs before hitting 'em with the strong follow up in IVY. Additionally, in order to build a competitive business moat, it was to their advantage to not forewarn any competitors of their involvement and plans. Consider John Chen's work as a CEO in his last business Sybase. Chen worked as the CEO of Sybase for 10 years. For the first 7 years, the SP remained at around $10 a share. Three years later, the SP was at $100 a share. I suspect he is implementing a similar model with Blackberry. Chen joined Blackberry in 2013. BB stock actually dropped for most of the last 7 years, resting at a stock price of around $5. Now BB is at $12 a share. I would not be surprised if BB reaches $50 two years from now.
Blackberry Clients and Partners Automakers: Honda, Audi, Jeep, Mitsubishi, Ford, Hyundai, Volkswagen, Bentley, Lamboghini, Byton, Mini (cooper), Toyota, Subaru, Fiat Chrysler, Mazda, Nio, BMW, Porsche, Lexus, Kia, Land-Rover, Mercedes-Benz, Buick, Jaguar, Visteon, Skoda, Chevrolet, Nissan, Acura, Continental, General Motors, Baidu, Motional Other: Denso, Aptiv, Bosch, Panasonic, Harman, Bugatti, LG, Vodafone, Bell, Carahsoft, CACI, Telus, iSec, KPMG, Tableau, Qlik Major: Amazon, Google, Sony, XPENG, XPEV, Li Auto, NVIDIA, Canoo, Microsoft, Intel, Verizon, Qualcomm, IBM, LG, Samsung Major Investors: PRIMECAP, Hamblin Watsa, Ontario Teachers’ Pension, Vanguard, Harris Associates, ETF Managers Group, Wells Capital, Arrowstreet Capital, Kahn Brothers Advisors, Norges Bank Investment Governments: Albania, Andorra, Angola, Argentina, Australia, Austria, Bahrain, Belarus, Belgium, Benin, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Botswana, Brazil, Brunei, Bulgaria, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Canada, Congo, Croatia, Czech Republic, DR Congo, Denmark, Egypt, Estonia, Finland, France, Gabon, Germany, Ghana, Gibraltar, Greece, Guadeloupe, Hong Kong, Hungary, Indonesia, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Kenya, Kuwait, Latvia, Lesotho, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Macau, Macedonia, Malawi, Malaysia, Mali, Malta, Marthinique, Mauritania, Mauritus, Mayotte, Mexico, Moldova, Monaco, Montenegro, Morocco, Mozambique, Namibia, Netherlands, Netherlands Antilles, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Oman, Philippines, Poland, Portugal, Qatar, Romania, Russia, Réunion, Saint Barthélemy, Saint Martin, San Marino, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Serbia, Singapore, Slovakia, Slovenia, South Africa, Spain, Swaziland, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Tanzania, Thailand, Togo, Turkey, USA, Uganda, Ukraine, United Arab Emirates, United Kingdom, Uruguay, Vatican City, Western Sahara, Zambia, Zimbabwe
Blackberry Current Revenues:
BlackBerry Revenues: How Does BlackBerry Make Money? -- Trefis This display the biggest bearish argument to BB. Until IVY begins producing new revenue streams, BB is likely to not exponentially increase revenue streams, but only sustain moderate YoY growth
Blackberry Analysis Regarding Infotainment and Google and Ford Deal:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sIrjrNYR3Lw The media recently picked out a story that left out a lot of pertinent information, making it seems that BB lost Ford as a client. This is not true. QNX is designed to be a SoC. This means that other operating systems, such as Linux or Android, can be easily added to QNX. It is in fact encouraged. The Ford and Google deal was simply announcing the Ford would be using Android as their infotainment system. I believe that BB was never intended to try and be the predominant entity for all software systems in EVs or IoTs, but the backbone that connects all together, and to protect all components in a secure system. Autonomous EVs and even regular EVs in general would not be possible without a secure system protecting the product, as is true with IoTs. This is also why things like US Fighter Jets run on... you guess it, QNX. Ford is still using QNX. It is simply also now using Android that is running on top of QNX more commentary on this: Analyzing Blackberry Bear Argument - Case No. 1: Ford Deal
Image This is an interesting one to be sure. Facebook was being evil, like the do, and were caught using a number of BB patents. They settled in February, and the day that the settlement was finalized, John Chen (BB CEO) tweeted reminding everyone that BB is used on the ISS https://twitter.com/JohnChen/status/1358853064153784321?s=20 Well, the connection and speculation here is that Blackberry is going to the moon, and that the settlement is rather significant. Someone else also dug out some information in Facebook's most recent 10-K, specifically a portion for a 'non-cancelable contractual commitment' of an amount of $7500 million dollars. That's 7.5 billion btw. We don't know how big the settlement is, but it is worth noting that BB's entire market cap is 7.5B. I highly doubt that a settlement would reach such lofty numbers, but it could be possible that FB settled for some initial amount of $1B or so, as well as $1B in reoccurring payments over several years. We won't know until March 15th actually, so stay tuned.
Blackberry New Partnerships
Within the last few weeks, Blackberry has announced a stronger partnership with Baidu (China's Google), as well as their involvement with Baidu choosing to use QNX for their autonomous vehicles that will be hitting the road, as early as this year and next. BB has also announced their involvement with Motional, a joint venture between Hyundai and Aptiv, which will use QNX for their autonomous vehicles. Motional will be partnering with Lyft to use autonomous vehicles to begin serving customers and will be deploying their vehicles in 2023. It was also announced that QNX will be working with AOSP (Android Open Source Project), as well as announcing yesterday that QNX Hypervisor 2.2 is now released, which is what allows Android and Linux to run on top of QNX. A sum-up of all the recent news on $BB
Rumor: Blackberry Buyout? Here's why that's not happening:
Just read this post. It's quite revealing: Great Day for BB despite stick dipping. TL;DR: Amazon could have easily bought BB. Why didn't they? Well, all the big players are interested in this EV and IoT emerging sector. This is the new wave of technology that will dominate the market. First we had the dot.com boom, then the cell-phone and smart-phone market, and now we have the autonomous EV and IoT market. If Amazon were to buy BB, they would have to submit a tender offer. This would be a red flag to all the big players that Amazon were trying to buy up the best security out there. It would be a bidding war that could result in a double-digit multi-billion dollar buyout. It was much more to their advantage to create a secret alliance with BB and establish a 50/50 partnership, whose contract includes exclusivity for their use of IVY. Ouch! That's gotta hurt. This is where the importance of QNX lies. BB will be able to pull the rug out from any company that chooses to use something other than IVY. No IVY, no QNX, no EV. It will be a package deal where IVY is the big money maker. All other companies will have to build from the ground up or be forced to license QNX and make their money off of other sectors, such as the infotainment sector, as Google has already begun to do with the Ford deal. When this deal happened, the other big boys wet their pants realizing they needed to get into this space, and fast. Microsoft partnered with Cruise/GM. Apple tried to partner with Hyundai, who was so flattered, they may have initially said yes or indicated so, before realizing that they were already partnered with BB, so it was a no-go. Not sure if that is fact or fiction, but it is an interesting proposal.
Blackberry IVY + AWS Partnership:
Alright, so what's the deal with IVY? Why is it going to be so profitable? Why is IVY the real money-maker, while QNX has been used as the customer-acquisition software tool? Check out this picture: Image For one, IVY is designed for real-time communication between EVs or other IoTs. Autonomous driving level 5 requires vehicles to communicate with one another. This is where IVY comes in. IVY connects the different software components of an EV (which presumably are running on QNX), as well as harvesting data on those systems. The data used can be distributed for a wide-variety of uses, including, but not limited to, automakers and suppliers, app developers, consumer services, smart cities, EV charging providers, insurance companies, and vehicle maintenance providers. All of these different sectors will be willing to pay subscriptions for these data services, as well as the automakers and IoT makers who will also be willing to pay subscriptions for IVY. For instance, IVY can help share information between vehicles that will allow for a car detecting ice roads in one area so that other cars using IVY can take a different route. This results in less crashes, which helps the automakers. Insurance companies can use data from all these different data points as well, allowing them an inside-view of their clients. The list of what is possible here is inexhaustible. As for price points, the subscription models for multiple outside companies wanting to use the data will be create huge revenue streams for BB. With Amazon as a 50/50 partner, and with their resources and strategic management, BB will be poised to be the foundation in security and data sharing for the entire EV, and somewhat of the IoT market (the IoT market has more competitors for sure) Analysis on IVY Analysis on PTs
Revenue, revenue, revenue...
Blackberry is poised to be an industry leader in EV, government, and IoT security and data sharing with products such as QNX, IVY, Spark, and their other software products. Stock price will likely stay somewhat stunted until IVY revenue begins picking up. It is possible that more announcements and marketing related to IVY will make this growth more rapid. In my opinion, either way BB over the next 5 years will 10x. The question is whether you want to get in now at $12 / share or two years from now at $40 a share or something similar, assuming that either way this stock is going to push for that 100B market cap (it's currently at 7B). There will be bearish analysts that will continue to say that Blackberry is a worthless company until those IVY revenue streams begin to come in. It is also possible that a realistic competitor may emerge within the next three years, such as Tesla or Apple. But if Apple is seeking to create its own EV product, then both companies will have a hard time finding any way to license their software to any other company. It remains possible that Apple and/or Tesla may strikes deals with BB as well in order to be able to produce autonomous vehicles and get a bite of that market share
Really, no competitors?
Well it's called a business moat for a reason. As we have recently seen, QNX is working with AOSP, and so clearly, they are not to be worried about. Tesla is not a true competitor as their OS product is not certified yet, and has demonstrated difficulty in doing so, and additionally, other automakers will not want to benefit their competitors by using their product. A third-party non-auto-maker will be much more desirable. Other companies such as VxWorks, have a lot of to prove both in security and certifications, as well as producing an OS product that is compatible with an emerging autonomous level 5 EV market. QNX's embedded microkernel RTOS is very much unique in this regard. This type of system allows for real-time processing and power distribution, while protecting the system from attacks. In an embedded microkernel system, if one part of the system is attacked, the whole system will not shut down, in layman's terms. This is essential for the security of any high-risk product that is built upon an underlying software that controls that different components of the system.
Conclusion:
All eyes are turned towards Blackberry right now. People want to know what this deal with Amazon will look like, how it will work, what they will focus on, (will Amazon also use this system for a fleet of delivery drones? hmmm), what the revenue streams will look like, what are their projections, what markets and sectors are they targeting, what are their future goals, what will Amazon be doing on their end, etc, etc. The Amazon + BB webinar may answer some of those questions, or maybe they won't. Time will tell (Feb. 23rd, specifically -- here's a link to sign up and watch: Next-Gen Vehicle Architectures Unlock Unprecedented Opportunities for Automakers). Also look out for that FB settlement numbers on March 15th, and Q4 earnings March 31st. I don't expect Q4 earnings to be particularly interesting unless they include the FB settlement numbers. Could those numbers instead be put into Q1 earnings for 2021? Possibly. Initially IVY beta is expected to begin being released late this year. I will also be looking forward to see how Apple and Tesla respond in the coming months. Ultimately, BB is a long-term play, but is poised to dominate this emerging industry with the partnerships and security focused software they have secretly been building. Now if only the could do something about their logo, some rebranding would be nice... This is not financial advice, just my own opinions. I am not a financial advisor nor a professional. I own 14k shares in Blackberry, as well as options (10x 8/17/21 20c BB). Do your own DD and fact check me as well
NOTE THIS ARTICLE IS SLIGHTLY DATED. I MADE A NEW UPDATED POST - VERSION 1.1 OF THIS SAME ARTICLE. THE INFORMATION IS BASICALLY THE SAME - JUST MORE CURRENT link here: https://www.reddit.com/dogecoin/comments/lfhomy/misconceptions_regarding_dogecoin_revised_version/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf Misconceptions regarding Dogecoin. This information below is important. I ask that you please take the time to read this entire post before making judgment or commenting. My discord group of over 100 people have grouped together the majority of the most asked questioned and misunderstandings regarding Dogecoin, into the following 22 key points. Please read them below. 1) What is Dogecoin? Dogecoin (/ˈdoʊdʒkɔɪn/ DOHJ-koyn, code: DOGE, symbol: Ð) is a cryptocurrency invented by software engineers Billy Markus and Jackson Palmer, who decided to create a payment system that is instant, fun, and free from traditional banking fees. Dogecoin features the face of the Shiba Inu dog from the popular "Doge" meme as its logo and namesake. It was introduced on December 6, 2013, and quickly developed its own online community reaching a market capitalization of US $5,382,875,000 on January 28, 2021. [Wikipedia, 20210203] 2) Why Dogecoin? For the Lolz. Well, not quite. Initially as a purely meme-driven alternative to the likes of Bitcoin and Litecoin, Dogecoin in-fact boasts very low transaction fees and fast transaction times, very little network congestion, and most importantly, is designed to be used as a daily means of exchange, like your morning cup of coffee. Also, it is really fun, and who doesn't like the Dog ?! 1/2) What Is Dogecoin? And why Dogecoin? Back a few years ago, some crazy people banded together in support of a cryptocurrency known as Dogecoin. Similar to other cryptocurrencies, Dogecoin, the people's crypto, finds itself with the support of hundreds if not thousands of individuals pushing for this currency to succeed. But what is that?
Unless you have been absent from every social bubble, you may have heard of Bitcoin. For the purpose of this explanation, you will find that Bitcoin is not exactly an easy thing to equate to Dogecoin, but lets think about the criteria of a Cryptocurrency. Bitcoin did not find its foothold overnight. In fact, it took several years. A lot of people fought tooth and nail for their belief in the coin. Crypto, in a nutshell, is a decentralized form of currency that finds its value in a combination of individual asset involvement, ease or difficulty in security of an exchange, creating a method of reliable, secure, trustworthy exchange, and other reasons. Think of it like this: to exchange goods and services without currency, one must barter. I can barter a service (a haircut, for example) towards someone who needs a haircut, and in exchange they can barter a good or service to me. Currency then becomes an "IOU" (I Owe yoU) so that, if somebody needs me to cut their hair, they can give me an IOU for a good or service they control. When enough people begin adopting this, a centralized currency eventually takes hold. Crypto seeks to take this a step further and, insteal of relying on building up a centalization in terms of valuable metals or debt, it is built up solely on the exchange of goods and services. Dogecoin, compared to other cryptocurrencies, finds itself in a strange position where the origins did NOT see it soaring to the moon in any situation. Funny how things can change in time. Dogecoin has pros and cons to it. Comparing it to other cryptos, it does not face a supply cap like Bitcoin does. It is not a directly equated asset, such as how Bitcoin can be attributed as a digital gold asset. Mining dogecoin is also much simpler (comparitively) and does not face difficulty spikes, a source of Bitcoin slow-down. In essence, in 50 years, Dogecoin will still be around, still be mined, still be traded. Bitcoin will cease to be created, hoarded, and become the digital currency of the affluent.
Step 3) Places to buy dogecoin places where you can spend Dogecoin? Refer to dogecoin posts by the moderators 4) Cryptocurrencies vs stocks. The main differences between them. When comparing crypto to stocks, the main thing to keep in mind is that cryptocurrencies have few if any regulations applied to them. It is still the "wild west" of trading. You can be scammed, skimmed, pumped-dumped, as so forth, much more often and more easily than with stocks. Terminology is similar to exact between the two, but both require a certain mindset. Crypto is almost always a long-haul game, where stocks can be short play or long haul. 5) Dogecoin vs Bitcoin - their competitive advantages and disadvantages. Many cryptocurrencies have a higher degree of scarcity in comparison with FIAT (e.g. the US Dollar). For example Bitcoin / BTC has a strictly limited supply. And even though Dogecoin is not strictly limited, it is still a lot more scare in terms of supply than the US dollar. This simply means that if more people want to hold BTC or Doge versus the limited supply of the respective coin, the value of the cryptocurrency increases. 6) Is Dogecoin a meme or should it be taken seriously? We have all witnessed the power of a meme, the depths it can reach in society, especially in recent years. We have seen it many times before with video games, consoles, Oreos, or as of late even toilet paper... A meme has inherent value in the form of “widespread information”. A meme can spread an idea across diverse communities, and even entire countries literally overnight. This can bring about lasting effects on culture and society. If correctly taken advantage of, Doge can become the dominant meme currency of the internet, and amass real-world value just by being a popular, recognisable meme itself. This is where the saying “Dogecoin is the people’s coin” comes from. 7) Mining Dogecoin and the history of Dogecoin). How a new currency entered the market. mining is the process of creating new cryptocurrency by solving a computational puzzle. mining is necessary to maintain the ledger of transactions upon which cryptocurrency is based. Miners have become very sophisticated over the last several years using complex machinery to speed up mining operations. Approximately 600,000 dogecoins are produced per hour and 5,256,000,000 per year, 8) Circulation of currencies. The importance of buying, selling, and holding - and the differences between them. To briefly explain this, a lot of people have been saying “buy and hold” or “I’m never selling!” - which in itself is great start. But there remains a lot of misinformation around the topic, for example that simply "buying and holding Doge" will drive up the price indefinitely. Unfortunately, that is just not true. Buying, holding, and selling are all intricately connected with each other. ALL of those three states are essential for a (digital) currency to flourish. Holding does neither hurt or raise the value of the asset, but rather it helps to establish a baseline, which is also called "setting a floor". Those who have diligently kept on holding their coins, have allowed Dogecoin to stabilize at roughly 0.03 USD cents for the past few days. Remember, this remains a huge gain from where Dogecoin has been just weeks ago. The reason the price is not changing much from this baseline right now is because few are buying and few are selling their Dogecoin, specifically due to topics which will be covered in other sections here. However, an active circulation of a currency is critical to establishing it as an effective means of exchanging goods and setting it up for long term growth. The best way to increase the overall value of the currency in the long run is by eventually by exchanging your coins for goods, services, or just by tipping and trading with other Dogecoin holders. The value of any means of exchange is fundamentally driven by supply and demand. If two parties agree that X amount of asset A is roughly worth the same as Y amount of asset B, you effectively have established a market. 9) Establishing a floor or a baseline. Due to other current issues, such as "RH" and other platforms artificially delaying FIAT-to-Crypto exchanges, these trends may appear strange at first sight, but those who continue holding onto their Doge are affecting or rather creating the floor. The floor is essentially the lowest value Dogecoin will drop to at current market conditions. The floor is currently 0.03 USD cents. Which is up from 0.008 USD cents just a few months ago. 10) Inflation and deflation Infinite supply / no cap vs cap in regarding to cryptocurrency
Inflation and deflation are common economic terms used to explain the change in the inherent value of a currency. This means that that 1 US Dollar today does not have the same value or “worth” as it did, for example, in 1950. Inflation is a situation of rising prices in the economy. A more exact definition of inflation is a sustained increase in the general price level in an economy. Deflation on the other hand occurs when the inflation rate falls below 0%, that is a negative inflation rate. While inflation reduces the value of a currency over time, a sudden deflation of a currency increases its relative value. This would allow more goods and services to be bought than before with the same amount of currency. Deflation can be a factor in leading to a recession and also result in a deflationary spiral.
10a) What does all this mean with regards to cryptocurrency, specifically Bitcoin versus Dogecoin?
Well - Bitcoin is stagnant or deflationary over time, while Dogecoin is inflationary overtime. This is due to the way they are architected and mined, and how new coins are added into their respective markets - covered in other section. What gets misunderstood is which one is “better” or rather "the lesser evil". Since Dogecoin has an “infinite supply”, how can it maintain value?
10b) You may have read things like: "You're stupid if you buy Dogecoin. It has no value. It has unlimited supply. It's just a stupid meme." Let's look at the US dollar (or essentially any major FIAT currency of your choice). FIAT currency is created out of thin air. It is backed by large sums of debt, and in the normal course of the economy it is inflating endlessly. But FIAT currency does have value. It's a value assigned to it by governments and people, a commonly accepted means for exchange. Again, FIAT does not have a limited supply. In fact, the supply of the US dollar is a lot more inflationary than Doge would ever be. Please think about that for a moment and make up your own mind. 10c) Yes, Dogecoin has a supply growth of about 5 billion coins (that's about 4-5% right now) per year, but why is that a problem, practically speaking? The growth is there to keep transaction fees to a minimum and allow a small, but healthy inflationary tendency, rather than the opposite. 10d) Dogecoin doesn't need a supply limit like Bitcoin, because in the long run it will be much easier to exchange Dogecoin for goods and services, than with other crypto currencies or regular currencies for that matter.
If Bitcoin wants to become a real global currency with buying power, not just a speculation tool to exchange it for a few thousand debt based USD, when it hits a new record high every few months or years, its supply will have to grow inevitably. We have to see the bigger picture! Dogecoin may well climb to one US dollar, but why stop and sell there? Instead, we could build a new, fair, balanced monetary ecosystem based on Dogecoin, not to make a quick profit, but to change the whole world. Our current money is backed by signatures on debt contracts, not on real values. But it works, because we believe in it, even if it will be our downfall if it continues like this. Dogecoin is different. Dogecoin has a set amount of coins entering the market by the minute. There are plenty of spreadsheets out there showcasing exactly how much many Dogecoin will be in circulation at any given moment of time. People get confused because they think inflation is a bad thing, when in fact it is actually beneficial in small quantities and beneficial to the longevity of a currency. Dogecoin doesn't need a supply limit like Bitcoin, because in the long run it will be much easier to exchange Dogecoin for goods and services, than with other crypto currencies or regular currencies for that matter. If Bitcoin wants to become a real global currency with buying power, not just a speculation tool to exchange it for a few thousand debt based USD when it hits a new record high every few months or years, it's supply will have to grow inevitably.
11) Financial aspects of Dogecoin. Who will profit from it? What will happen if Dogecoin has exponential growth? A zero-sum game. Explaining that you only realize a loss or profit at then time of sell.
To clear things up - cryptocurrency is essentially what economist call a Zero Sum Game. A zero-sum game is a mathematical representation of a situation in which each participant's gain or loss of utility is exactly balanced by the losses or gains of the utility of the other participants. What this means is that across a group of people who engage in selling and buying Dogecoin, if one person gains another person loses. For example if you bought at 0.08 and sold at 0.03 someone made a profit of 0.05 cents per Dogecoin while you lost 0.05 cents per Dogecoin. The important thing to understand is that in these situations the only way you truly lose or gain anything is when you sell. You don’t realize your gains or losses until you complete that transaction. What this means is that if Dogecoin does increase exponentially the people who have been holding since the price has been low will gain astronomical returns on their investment, while others who joined late will not.
12) Stability vs Volatility This describes basically how stable something is over a set period of time. Volatility is how much prices change over time. Stabilization of Dogecoin is important for the overall health, however, cryptocurrencies are known to and will likely remain very volatile for the foreseeable future. 13) Pump and dump vs long term growth. "Pump and dump" is a form of securities fraud that involves artificially inflating the price of an owned stock through false and misleading positive statements, in order to sell the cheaply purchased stock at a higher price. Pump and dumps are consider illegal. While a subset of people are trying to pump and dump Dogecoin the legitimate community is focused its long term growth and stability which is achieved through the rest of the topics addressed here 14) Difference between cold storage, internet wallets and Robinhood Coldstorage - in the cryptocurrency world cold storage refers to physical objects/devices that contain your cryptocurrency. Wallets are an electronic program of service that stores your cryptocurrency Robhinhood- as of right now robinhood does not actually give you cryptocurrency when purchased through them. From Robhinhood’s cryptocurrency page: “We don’t currently provide you with access to your wallet or your wallet address. You own the cryptocurrency assets in your account, and you can buy or sell them at any time. We’re evaluating features to allow you to safely transfer coins to and from Robinhood, and we’ll update you when these features are available.” Robhinhood will be addressed in another section. 15) Elon Musk - Is he important for Dogecoin? The impact of celebrities and big business supporting Dogecoin Big business allowing Dogecoin to be supported as means of exchanging goods, and people like Elon musk supporting and backing this cryptocurrency are important to proving its value and legitimacy. 16) Is getting Dogecoin to increase to the equivalent of one US dollar possible? Can and will it really happen? What will change if it does happen? Yes, despite not having a fixed or capped supply, the value of the currency can rise based on its relative value against other currencies in the market. You can find examples of this in the FOREX market where currency pairs are traded, like Euro against US dollar, or US Dollar against Japanese Yen. As the value of Dogecoin rises, more and more businesses will recognise its potential and importance, and subsequently begin to accept it in exchange for goods and services. This will also help to grow the developer community around Dogecoin. In summary, Dogecoin has a way to go and can be improved from its current state, but the potential for greatness is there already today. NEEDS MORE INFORMATION T 18) Is Dogecoin a product of the Wallstreet Bets movement? What differentiates dogecoin from GME/AMC? Just like some other investment opportunities (Nokia, Blackberry), DOGE was brought into the spotlight amidst the whole GME situation during the previous week. Unlike those stock, however, Doge is not another short squeeze, it is not a stock. It is a cryptocurrency / asset that many people think has potential, despite its Meme origins. Many who feel that they were late for embarking on the GME hype or the Bitcoin train in 2013 respectively, are now looking towards Doge, one of the early alternatives to the original cryptocurrency, Bitcoin. Doge got a lot of interest recently, for example with the Elon Musk tweeting the same week. 19) The situation with Robinhood - Changes in terms and conditions. Disclaimer, it is important to read through Robhinhoods entire terms and conditions to fully under what happened. The information below is just a summary and is not Robhinhoods terms and conditions but an explanation of what happened and why it happened Robhinhood has received high profile backlash in the media recently for their involvement with GME/Wallstreetbets. A lot of the cryptocurrency and Dogecoin community were outraged when they found out that about one week ago Robhinhood stopped allowed instant transfers for their cryptocurrency. Unfortunately, while we may not agree with what happened there they do have a reason for this. Over the past week the sheer amount of people trying to buy cryptocurrency skyrocketed at one instant. When robinhood allowed for instant transfers what they were really doing is essentially “loaning” you money to make trades or purchase cryptocurrency before the funds actually hit Robhinhoods business account. This caused a huge liquidity issue and Robhinhood could not meet the demand. That is why you had to wait 5 business days for your funds to be approved. This is standard practice across multiple brokerage firms before Robhinhood pioneered the instant transfer option. Whether we like it or not, Robhinhood is a power house in their industry and not going away. Robhinhood is one of the most mainstream ways to purchase and sell cryptocurrency and if everyone pulled their money out of Robhinhood the entire cryptocurrency market would collapse which I believe we can all agree no one wants to happen. 20) Feb 4th - Feb 8th Well unfortunately we wanted to get this post out before Robhinhood’s clearance of funds. Went through, but now that they did, you can see what happened. The price immediately skyrocketed. This happened due to the topics we covered above. Now what’s going to happen is the people who are pumping and dumping know that this is coming and will be immediately prepared to sell. This will cause huge volatility with dramatic swings up and down. Nobody knows exactly what’s going to happen this week, but we do know it’s going to be crazy. That is where the diamonds holders come into play. We need to set a new floor after this swing to show the rest of the world that dogecoin is legitimate and can weather extreme volatility. Thank you for reading this post in its entirety. It took a large amount of collective effort of people in my discord. I appreciate them to no end. We have over 100 people in that discord and we are here to stay. We are interested in explaining Dogecoin, reducing the scare factor and backing up Dogecoin through economic, social, financial, mathematical theory, etc. Per Dogecoin rules I cannot give out this discord, but if you are interested message me. It goes into greater detail on every one of these topics, with resources, links, articles etc. thank you and above all else remember that at the end of the day this is a meme cryptocurrency from 2013. But the people have spoken, and this is now official the people’s currency as well. Dogecoin🚀🪐🚀
BB -- Blackberry AWS -- Amazon Web Services IVY -- Intelligent Vehicles Yo. I don't actually know if this stands for anything QNX -- Quick-Unix perhaps? It's a Unix-like embedded microkernel RTOS (real-time operating system) EOY -- end of year PT -- price target SP -- stock price EV -- electric vehicle SoC -- System on a Chip IoT -- Internet of Things TL;DR: Blackberry ($BB) is almost daily announcing new partnerships and new clients for their software, including new deals with companies that are just now or just this year launching autonomous vehicles that run on QNX software. The big kahuna of all these deals is BB's recent partnership with Amazon to go 50/50 into BB's software IVY, a scalable cloud-connected software platform designed for intelligent vehicle data gathering and data sharing. With Amazon's Jeff Bezos stepping down, and Andy Jassy filling his shoes, who was the CEO of AWS, BB will have some very firm support behind Amazon's new CEO. BB and Amazon are having a webinar Feb. 23rd about their partnership and IVY, which should be a strong catalyst moving forward. IVY beta earnings are projected to begin impacting BB's Q3 or Q4 earnings beginning in November this year, with IVY fully being integrated around the 2023 timeframe. Through a lot of reading and analysis, I believe BB has a four-tiered business model dating back as far as 2013 when BB's CEO John Chen was hired to begin the massive BB turnaround process. Tier 1 was development of QNX and IVY, lasting from 2013 to today and onward, however, Tier 2 overlaps Tier 1. Tier 2 was customer acquisition, primarily distributing their secure software in QNX, SecuSuite, Spark, and AtHoc. They secured 37 automakers during this time, including 9 of the top 10 automakers, over 106 governments from around the world, including all of G7 governments and 18 of G20 governments, as well as 77% of Fortune 100 companies, including partnerships with Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Sony, XPENG, XPEV, NVIDIA, Intel, Qualcomm, Baidu, IBM, LG, Samsung, and others. Well if they have such an incredible market share, why are they so undervalued? The answer is that QNX was not the end-all-be-all product. It was the base that the rest would be built on. Particularly IVY, which is the real money-maker. Tier 3 is IVY beta, and Tier 4 is IVY distribution and subscription revenue streams. So why is IVY the big deal and not QNX? They are both big deals, but QNX was never designed to be the money-maker. They are charging a one-time fee per vehicle use. There is a bigger goal here, to secure their clients as their customers for the bigger product in IVY. They also need QNX is to be a secure system in order for IVY to be trustworthy and reliable. And it certainly is secure. QNX has ISO26262 certification, as well as US government clearance, NSA clearance, and CIA clearance. The US government uses QNX and Blackberry products. Just let that sink in. That should tell you something about its security. Anyways, IVY will be used in autonomous vehicle level 4 and level 5 communication (note that QNX is level 5 certified... it has a business moat just in its security level and clearance), as well as EV and gas vehicle data collecting and AI-powered data synthesis. See below for more details on IVY. Wrapping up this TL;DR, BB is going to do well this year as IVY unfolds, but will do even better in the next 2-5 years. I have a PT of 25 by EOY and a PT of 80 by 2023 EOY, and a PT of 160+ by 2025 EOY TL;DR: TL;DR: BB go up, but go slow for now because IVY revenue not here yet, but big fast later. Make big monies, BB is the future tech that Amazon, Microsoft, Google, etc will be building upon in the EV and IoT market
FAQs:
1) Why is Blackberry stock price going down? A: A few possible reasons. One, as of today the whole market is down. BB is connected to overall market swings as most companies are. Two, there may be some market manipulation by bearish financial institutions as there are a lot of calls expiring on 2/19. I would expect that BB SP to be volatile between $11 and $14 between now and then, and to move upwards after 2/19 and especially after 2/23 (Amazon + BB webinar). Three, there are bearish investors who still think BB is a phone company and don't understand the underworkings of BB's business strategy, their software, their patents, or their partners. Their revenue has been affected by coronavirus and has not been particularly phenomenal so far this year. 2) Should I invest now or later? A: First off, I'm not a financial advisor, these are just my opinions. Invest at your own risk. In my opinion, BB will see a large SP growth by EOY, anywhere from 50% to 150% growth by EOY. While revenue will likely not increase much this year, the partnership with Amazon and news regarding IVY will likely create new floors for their SP much higher than the current SP right now, at around the $12 SP 3) What's stopping competitors from building a similar product and hurting BB's business? A: There's a lot of reasons why BB has a huge moat right now. One, notice the partners that BB has with QNX. They've got all the big boys working them, aside from Apple and Tesla. Seeing as SpaceX runs on QNX, and seeing that Apple was trying to make a deal with Hyundai that did not go through, I think it is still possible that either Tesla or Apple or both companies could also make a deal with BB to use QNX as their OS system. BB worked to develop their QNX embedded microkernel OS for the last eight years or so. Anyone trying to step into the game now is far too late. Apple has the best chance of all companies, as it has its own OS and Apple knows security very well, but this still requires an entirely new system in order to work in the EV sector. Also, Apple announced recently that they would be developing their own EV, although they did not give much details beyond that statement. The likelihood that they are both working on the hardware and software side of this thing is slim given the large number of difficulties that come with certification as it relates to the cybersecurity software space. Regardless, I would suspect that either Apple or Tesla is the most likely to be competitors in this space, but neither company has successfully completed a certified OS system, particularly for the emerging sector of autonomous EVs. Tesla is currently building a Linux-based system that is having a lot of difficulty in passing certifications such as ISO26262, a struggle that has been ongoing for years now. They may achieve a product that passes these safety regulations and certifications, but the question remains whether this will be in time as the EV and autonomous market picks up speed, and whether competing companies would even be interested in using their product. In fact, any car company is unlikely to develop their own OS software because none of their competitors would be likely to use it. BB is the perfect business to license since it is not competing in the hardware sector for the EV market. This argument can also be used for Apple if they are also building an EV. 4) Why is BB's revenue so low if they have so many customers and partners? A: QNX has been licensed so far as a one-time purchase, per vehicle or IoT using their software. IVY will be a subscription-based software that also includes a one-time purchase. Thus, BB's revenue streams are somewhat unimpressive currently, but they are playing the long game. If my hypothesis is correct, it is John Chen's goal to lay low as software is developed and customer relationships are built. It's the same with the book market. It's the sequel that makes all the money, not the first book. QNX is just the first book of a series looking to hook in its customers with low costs before hitting 'em with the strong follow up in IVY. Additionally, in order to build a competitive business moat, it was to their advantage to not forewarn any competitors of their involvement and plans. Consider John Chen's work as a CEO in his last business Sybase. Chen worked as the CEO of Sybase for 10 years. For the first 7 years, the SP remained at around $10 a share. Three years later, the SP was at $100 a share. I suspect he is implementing a similar model with Blackberry. Chen joined Blackberry in 2013. BB stock actually dropped for most of the last 7 years, resting at a stock price of around $5. Now BB is at $12 a share. I would not be surprised if BB reaches $50 two years from now.
Blackberry Clients and Partners Automakers: Honda, Audi, Jeep, Mitsubishi, Ford, Hyundai, Volkswagen, Bentley, Lamboghini, Byton, Mini (cooper), Toyota, Subaru, Fiat Chrysler, Mazda, Nio, BMW, Porsche, Lexus, Kia, Land-Rover, Mercedes-Benz, Buick, Jaguar, Visteon, Skoda, Chevrolet, Nissan, Acura, Continental, General Motors, Baidu, Motional Other: Denso, Aptiv, Bosch, Panasonic, Harman, Bugatti, LG, Vodafone, Bell, Carahsoft, CACI, Telus, iSec, KPMG, Tableau, Qlik Major: Amazon, Google, Sony, XPENG, XPEV, Li Auto, NVIDIA, Canoo, Microsoft, Intel, Verizon, Qualcomm, IBM, LG, Samsung Major Investors: PRIMECAP, Hamblin Watsa, Ontario Teachers’ Pension, Vanguard, Harris Associates, ETF Managers Group, Wells Capital, Arrowstreet Capital, Kahn Brothers Advisors, Norges Bank Investment Governments: Albania, Andorra, Angola, Argentina, Australia, Austria, Bahrain, Belarus, Belgium, Benin, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Botswana, Brazil, Brunei, Bulgaria, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Canada, Congo, Croatia, Czech Republic, DR Congo, Denmark, Egypt, Estonia, Finland, France, Gabon, Germany, Ghana, Gibraltar, Greece, Guadeloupe, Hong Kong, Hungary, Indonesia, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Kenya, Kuwait, Latvia, Lesotho, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Macau, Macedonia, Malawi, Malaysia, Mali, Malta, Marthinique, Mauritania, Mauritus, Mayotte, Mexico, Moldova, Monaco, Montenegro, Morocco, Mozambique, Namibia, Netherlands, Netherlands Antilles, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Oman, Philippines, Poland, Portugal, Qatar, Romania, Russia, Réunion, Saint Barthélemy, Saint Martin, San Marino, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Serbia, Singapore, Slovakia, Slovenia, South Africa, Spain, Swaziland, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Tanzania, Thailand, Togo, Turkey, USA, Uganda, Ukraine, United Arab Emirates, United Kingdom, Uruguay, Vatican City, Western Sahara, Zambia, Zimbabwe
Blackberry Current Revenues:
BlackBerry Revenues: How Does BlackBerry Make Money? -- Trefis This display the biggest bearish argument to BB. Until IVY begins producing new revenue streams, BB is likely to not exponentially increase revenue streams, but only sustain moderate YoY growth
Blackberry Analysis Regarding Infotainment and Google and Ford Deal:
see "Blackberry (BB) Stock News Analysis | What I need to say..." by Financial Live by LEYA on the forbidden video website The media recently picked out a story that left out a lot of pertinent information, making it seems that BB lost Ford as a client. This is not true. QNX is designed to be a SoC. This means that other operating systems, such as Linux or Android, can be easily added to QNX. It is in fact encouraged. The Ford and Google deal was simply announcing the Ford would be using Android as their infotainment system. I believe that BB was never intended to try and be the predominant entity for all software systems in EVs or IoTs, but the backbone that connects all together, and to protect all components in a secure system. Autonomous EVs and even regular EVs in general would not be possible without a secure system protecting the product, as is true with IoTs. This is also why things like US Fighter Jets run on... you guess it, QNX. Ford is still using QNX. It is simply also now using Android that is running on top of QNX more commentary on this: Analyzing Blackberry Bear Argument - Case No. 1: Ford Deal
Image This is an interesting one to be sure. Facebook was being evil, like the do, and were caught using a number of BB patents. They settled in February, and the day that the settlement was finalized, John Chen (BB CEO) tweeted reminding everyone that BB is used on the ISS https://twitter.com/JohnChen/status/1358853064153784321?s=20 Well, the connection and speculation here is that Blackberry is going to the moon, and that the settlement is rather significant. Someone else also dug out some information in Facebook's most recent 10-K, specifically a portion for a 'non-cancelable contractual commitment' of an amount of $7500 million dollars. That's 7.5 billion btw. We don't know how big the settlement is, but it is worth noting that BB's entire market cap is 7.5B. I highly doubt that a settlement would reach such lofty numbers, but it could be possible that FB settled for some initial amount of $1B or so, as well as $1B in reoccurring payments over several years. We won't know until March 15th actually, so stay tuned.
Blackberry New Partnerships
Within the last few weeks, Blackberry has announced a stronger partnership with Baidu (China's Google), as well as their involvement with Baidu choosing to use QNX for their autonomous vehicles that will be hitting the road, as early as this year and next. BB has also announced their involvement with Motional, a joint venture between Hyundai and Aptiv, which will use QNX for their autonomous vehicles. Motional will be partnering with Lyft to use autonomous vehicles to begin serving customers and will be deploying their vehicles in 2023. It was also announced that QNX will be working with AOSP (Android Open Source Project), as well as announcing yesterday that QNX Hypervisor 2.2 is now released, which is what allows Android and Linux to run on top of QNX. A sum-up of all the recent news on $BB
Rumor: Blackberry Buyout? Here's why that's not happening:
Just read this post. It's quite revealing: Great Day for BB despite stick dipping. TL;DR: Amazon could have easily bought BB. Why didn't they? Well, all the big players are interested in this EV and IoT emerging sector. This is the new wave of technology that will dominate the market. First we had the dot.com boom, then the cell-phone and smart-phone market, and now we have the autonomous EV and IoT market. If Amazon were to buy BB, they would have to submit a tender offer. This would be a red flag to all the big players that Amazon were trying to buy up the best security out there. It would be a bidding war that could result in a double-digit multi-billion dollar buyout. It was much more to their advantage to create a secret alliance with BB and establish a 50/50 partnership, whose contract includes exclusivity for their use of IVY. Ouch! That's gotta hurt. This is where the importance of QNX lies. BB will be able to pull the rug out from any company that chooses to use something other than IVY. No IVY, no QNX, no EV. It will be a package deal where IVY is the big money maker. All other companies will have to build from the ground up or be forced to license QNX and make their money off of other sectors, such as the infotainment sector, as Google has already begun to do with the Ford deal. When this deal happened, the other big boys wet their pants realizing they needed to get into this space, and fast. Microsoft partnered with Cruise/GM. Apple tried to partner with Hyundai, who was so flattered, they may have initially said yes or indicated so, before realizing that they were already partnered with BB, so it was a no-go. Not sure if that is fact or fiction, but it is an interesting proposal.
Blackberry IVY + AWS Partnership:
Alright, so what's the deal with IVY? Why is it going to be so profitable? Why is IVY the real money-maker, while QNX has been used as the customer-acquisition software tool? Check out this picture: Image For one, IVY is designed for real-time communication between EVs or other IoTs. Autonomous driving level 5 requires vehicles to communicate with one another. This is where IVY comes in. IVY connects the different software components of an EV (which presumably are running on QNX), as well as harvesting data on those systems. The data used can be distributed for a wide-variety of uses, including, but not limited to, automakers and suppliers, app developers, consumer services, smart cities, EV charging providers, insurance companies, and vehicle maintenance providers. All of these different sectors will be willing to pay subscriptions for these data services, as well as the automakers and IoT makers who will also be willing to pay subscriptions for IVY. For instance, IVY can help share information between vehicles that will allow for a car detecting ice roads in one area so that other cars using IVY can take a different route. This results in less crashes, which helps the automakers. Insurance companies can use data from all these different data points as well, allowing them an inside-view of their clients. The list of what is possible here is inexhaustible. As for price points, the subscription models for multiple outside companies wanting to use the data will be create huge revenue streams for BB. With Amazon as a 50/50 partner, and with their resources and strategic management, BB will be poised to be the foundation in security and data sharing for the entire EV, and somewhat of the IoT market (the IoT market has more competitors for sure) see "Is BlackBerry Stock Undervalued?" by Wealthy Mindset on the forbidden video website see "Roadmap to $180 a share (BlackBerry Stock)" by Wealthy Mindset on the forbidden video website
Revenue, revenue, revenue...
Blackberry is poised to be an industry leader in EV, government, and IoT security and data sharing with products such as QNX, IVY, Spark, and their other software products. Stock price will likely stay somewhat stunted until IVY revenue begins picking up. It is possible that more announcements and marketing related to IVY will make this growth more rapid. In my opinion, either way BB over the next 5 years will 10x. The question is whether you want to get in now at $12 / share or two years from now at $40 a share or something similar, assuming that either way this stock is going to push for that 100B market cap (it's currently at 7B). There will be bearish analysts that will continue to say that Blackberry is a worthless company until those IVY revenue streams begin to come in. It is also possible that a realistic competitor may emerge within the next three years, such as Tesla or Apple. But if Apple is seeking to create its own EV product, then both companies will have a hard time finding any way to license their software to any other company. It remains possible that Apple and/or Tesla may strikes deals with BB as well in order to be able to produce autonomous vehicles and get a bite of that market share
Really, no competitors?
Well it's called a business moat for a reason. As we have recently seen, QNX is working with AOSP, and so clearly, they are not to be worried about. Tesla is not a true competitor as their OS product is not certified yet, and has demonstrated difficulty in doing so, and additionally, other automakers will not want to benefit their competitors by using their product. A third-party non-auto-maker will be much more desirable. Other companies such as VxWorks, have a lot of to prove both in security and certifications, as well as producing an OS product that is compatible with an emerging autonomous level 5 EV market. QNX's embedded microkernel RTOS is very much unique in this regard. This type of system allows for real-time processing and power distribution, while protecting the system from attacks. In an embedded microkernel system, if one part of the system is attacked, the whole system will not shut down, in layman's terms. This is essential for the security of any high-risk product that is built upon an underlying software that controls that different components of the system.
Conclusion:
All eyes are turned towards Blackberry right now. People want to know what this deal with Amazon will look like, how it will work, what they will focus on, (will Amazon also use this system for a fleet of delivery drones? hmmm), what the revenue streams will look like, what are their projections, what markets and sectors are they targeting, what are their future goals, what will Amazon be doing on their end, etc, etc. The Amazon + BB webinar may answer some of those questions, or maybe they won't. Time will tell (Feb. 23rd, specifically -- here's a link to sign up and watch: Next-Gen Vehicle Architectures Unlock Unprecedented Opportunities for Automakers). Also look out for that FB settlement numbers on March 15th, and Q4 earnings March 31st. I don't expect Q4 earnings to be particularly interesting unless they include the FB settlement numbers. Could those numbers instead be put into Q1 earnings for 2021? Possibly. Initially IVY beta is expected to begin being released late this year. I will also be looking forward to see how Apple and Tesla respond in the coming months. Ultimately, BB is a long-term play, but is poised to dominate this emerging industry with the partnerships and security focused software they have secretly been building. Now if only the could do something about their logo, some rebranding would be nice... This is not financial advice, just my own opinions. I am not a financial advisor nor a professional. I own 14k shares in Blackberry, as well as options (10x 8/17/21 20c BB). Do your own DD and fact check me as well
The Wine team is proud to announce that the stable release Wine 6.0 is now available. This release represents a year of development effort and over 8,300 individual changes. It contains a large number of improvements that are listed in the release notes below. The areas of major changes are: - Core modules in PE format. - Vulkan backend for WineD3D. - DirectShow and Media Foundation support. - Text console redesign. This release is dedicated to the memory of Ken Thomases, who passed away just before Christmas at the age of 51. Ken was an incredibly brilliant developer, and the mastermind behind the macOS support in Wine. We all miss his skills, his patience, and his dark sense of humor. The source is available from the following locations: https://dl.winehq.org/wine/source/6.0/wine-6.0.tar.xz http://mirrors.ibiblio.org/wine/source/6.0/wine-6.0.tar.xz Binary packages for various distributions will be available from: https://www.winehq.org/download You will find documentation on https://www.winehq.org/documentation You can also get the current source directly from the git repository. Check https://www.winehq.org/git for details. Wine is available thanks to the work of many people. See the file AUTHORS in the distribution for the complete list. ---------------------------------------------------------------- What's new in Wine 6.0 ====================== *** PE modules - The core DLLs, including NTDLL, KERNEL32, GDI32, USER32, etc. are built in PE format. This should help a number of copy protection schemes that check that the DLL files on disk match the in-memory contents. - There is a new mechanism to associate a Unix library with a PE module, to make it possible to call Unix libraries from PE for the functions that can't be handled with Win32 APIs. These libraries are found by replacing the PE module file extension with .so, for instance ntdll.dll -> ntdll.so. They have to be located next to the PE file on disk. - Winelib modules no longer link against libwine.so, or require it at run-time. This is a backwards incompatible change, meaning that modules built with Wine 6.0 won't run on older Wine versions. - The libwine library is no longer used, but it's still provided to support running Winelib modules built against older versions. It is deprecated however, and will be removed in a future Wine release. Applications that explicitly call libwine functions will need to be changed to call equivalent Win32 or Unix APIs instead. As a consequence, the wine/library.h header has also been removed. - PE modules can be built with their debug information split to a separate file, to reduce the size of the files installed into the Wine prefix. *** Direct3D - An experimental Vulkan renderer for WineD3D is implemented. This requires the vkd3d-shader library in order to translate Direct3D shaders to SPIR-V shaders. In this release, shader support in the Vulkan renderer is limited to shader model 4 and 5 shaders. In practice, that limits its usefulness to Direct3D 10 and 11 applications. The Vulkan renderer can be enabled by setting the Direct3D "renderer" registry setting to "vulkan". - The following Direct3D 11 features are implemented: - Per render-target ("independent") blend states. - Dual-source blending. - Multi-sample anti-aliasing sample masks. - Several more capability queries. - Support for Direct3D 9 alpha-to-coverage multi-sampling is implemented. - When the EXT_framebuffer_multisample_blit_scaled OpenGL extension is available, scaled multi-sample resolve operations can happen as a single operation. - When the ARB_buffer_storage OpenGL extension is available, it will be used to allocate OpenGL buffer objects. This can result in minor performance improvements with some application and driver combinations. - The Direct3D graphics card database recognizes more graphics cards, and the reported driver versions have been updated. - New or modified HKEY_CURRENT_USER\Software\Wine\Direct3D registry keys: - "renderer" (REG_SZ) The backend API to target. This existing setting has an additional valid value in this release: "vulkan". Possible values are now "gl" (default) for OpenGL, "gdi" or "no3d" for GDI, and "vulkan" for Vulkan. - "csmt" (REG_DWORD) Enable or disable multi-threaded command stream features. This existing setting has an additional valid bit-field value in this release. Valid bit-fields in this release are: - 0x1 Enable the multi-threaded command stream feature. - 0x2 Enable serialization between multiple command streams in the same application. This feature is primarily useful for applications using multiple Direct3D instances from different threads, in combination with OpenGL drivers that do not properly support multi-threaded access themselves. As of this release, this is known to affect Microsoft Office 2013 and later versions in combination with the Mesa-based Nouveau driver. Note that this setting is a bit-field; in order to enable both features above, set this to 0x3. - Removed HKEY_CURRENT_USER\Software\Wine\Direct3D registry key: - "DirectDrawRenderer" This setting was previously deprecated in favor of the "renderer" setting, and has been removed in this release. *** D3DX - Drawing text using the ID3DXFont interface is implemented. - The ID3D12ShaderReflection shader reflection interface is implemented. - The D3DX10GetImageInfoFromMemory() and related image information query functions are implemented. *** Graphics - Drawing arcs, ellipses and rounded rectangles using the Direct2D API is implemented. - The standard sRGB color profile is installed into the prefix, for applications that expect to load it directly. - The Null display driver can be used as a proper display driver, for cases when a user interface is not needed. - WindowsCodecs supports decoding images in DDS (DirectDraw Surface) and JPEG-XR formats, as well as encoding images to GIF format. - The Vulkan driver creates the JSON manifest and registry entry used by the official Vulkan loader. - The Vulkan driver supports up to version 1.2.162 of the Vulkan spec. - There are a number of improvements in GdiPlus, including support for widening lines, more hatch styles, and more record types in metafiles. *** Audio / video - The Media Foundation framework is more complete, including: - Initial Media Session implementation for state changes and data flow. - Initial Streaming Audio Renderer (SAR) pipeline component implementation. - Initial Video Renderer implementation, a pipeline component hosting EVR mixer and presenter. - Initial Topology Loader implementation. - Various fixes for the Source Reader. - Initial Media Engine implementation. - Asynchronous queues functionality is moved to rtworkq.dll. - The AMStream (ActiveMovie Multimedia Streaming) library is more fully implemented, including support for streaming and sample management. - The Video Mixing Renderer supports the following features: - Windowless and renderless mode. - Automatic stretching and resizing of the video to match the window size. - Hardware-accelerated color space conversion of YUV formats, if supported by the underlying Direct3D implementation. - Preservation of video aspect ratio via letterboxing. - The Video Mixing Renderer is used as the default video renderer if supported by the underlying Direct3D implementation, replacing the GDI video renderer. - The DirectShow File Writer filter is implemented. - The DirectX Media Object (DMO) Wrapper filter is implemented. DMOs can be automatically enumerated and plugged into the filter graph. - The video capture filter supports reporting more information about video formats, including supported sizes and frame rates. - More Media Detector APIs are implemented. - The GStreamer wrapper filter supports video and audio format conversion within the GStreamer pipeline. This obviates the need for extra transform filters, and accordingly the GStreamer-based YUV to ARGB converter, audio converter, and mp3 decoder have been removed. Any video can be output in any of several RGB and YUV formats, allowing for better performance in some cases. - The Enhanced Video Renderer (EVR) contains an initial default mixer and presenter implementation using DXVA2 API. - The XACT3 (Cross-platform Audio Creation) engine library and interfaces are implemented through FAudio. *** Text and fonts - Text console support is reimplemented, using the architecture of recent Windows versions, which is closer to the Unix way of doing things. In particular: - Pseudo consoles are implemented (equivalent to Unix pseudo TTYs). - All console handling is done in the ConHost process. WineConsole is now only a thin wrapper around ConHost. - ConHost handles VT escape sequences, meaning that the Unix Curses library is no longer needed. - Default shaping features are enabled for all scripts in DirectWrite. All types of GSUB/GPOS lookups are supported. - In DirectWrite, CMAP data is read directly from the font without global cache or a need to create FreeType objects, for improved performance. - The font initialization in GDI32 avoids loading fonts through FreeType when possible, for faster startup times. The font registry cache is also more efficient. - The Uniscribe support in the USP10 library is moved into GDI32, as per recent Windows versions. - An initial version of the Webdings font is implemented, with only a few glyphs at this point. *** Input devices - Raw input devices and messages are implemented, and used by DirectInput instead of less efficient low-level hooks. - An initial USB kernel driver is implemented, based on the LibUSB library, to provide access to USB devices. - Mouse position history is implemented, for games that want more precise mouse positions. - SDL controller mappings can be set through the 'SDL_GAMECONTROLLERCONFIG' environment variable. - Plug & Play device notifications are implemented. *** Desktop integration - Display settings are retrieved through XRandR 1.4 if available. This also provides support for multiple display orientations. - There is a consistent view of the graphics adapters across the X11, OpenGL and Vulkan APIs. - The desktop work area layout is supported on multi-monitor setups using the _GTK_WORKAREAS property. *** Internationalization - Unicode character tables are based on version 13.0.0 of the Unicode Standard. - Unicode normalization is fully standard-compliant, including support for Hangul, supplementary character planes, and IDN normalization. - Codepage and other Unicode tables are stored in external NLS files compatible with Windows. This makes it possible to test with the native files to track down character mapping issues. - Codepage mapping tables are generated from Microsoft's Open Specification data for better compatibility. - Unicode linguistic case mappings for languages like Turkish are implemented. - Codepage 708 (Arabic ASMO) is supported. *** Kernel - Windows version compatibility mode is implemented, to only report the newest Windows versions to applications that have declared that they support them. - INI file mappings are implemented, to redirect .ini file entries to registry keys. - Many more NT kernel objects and functions are implemented, to support anti-cheat systems that load kernel drivers. - A NetIO.sys kernel driver is implemented, to support copy protection drivers that want to access the network. - AVX registers are supported in register contexts and exception handling on x86 platforms. - The Kernel User Shared Data block contains up-to-date timestamps, to avoid system calls when retrieving the current time counter. *** C Runtime - The C runtime import libraries provide the necessary runtime support so that PE modules no longer depend on the MinGW runtime. - The Wine modules are all built against the new UCRT runtime. - Winegcc uses the new UCRT runtime by default, unless an older C runtime library is explicitly imported. - The C runtime supports Windows locales that use the UTF-8 codepage. - A number of C runtime math functions are implemented internally based on code from the Musl C library, to avoid depending on the system math library. - Floating point formatting is reimplemented in the C runtime to avoid depending on the system printf function. *** Internet and networking - The Gecko engine is updated to version 2.47.2. - The WebSocket API is implemented. - JScript and VBScript report the correct location for errors in scripts. - There are various improvements to the LDAP and Active Directory Service support. - There is an initial implementation of the NDIS network driver. - The OLE data link dialog supports configuring the ODBC data connection. *** Cryptography - The BCrypt library supports additional algorithms, including DSA keys and the 3DES cipher. - The DSSENH (Digital Signatures) Cryptographic Provider is implemented, and enabled by default. *** Alternative platforms - Support for exception handling and stack unwinding on ARM platforms (both 32-bit and 64-bit) should be on par with the x86 architectures. - There is initial support for ARM64 on macOS, for the new Apple Silicon. - Support for the obsolete 32-bit PowerPC architecture is removed. It had been broken for some time already. - Case-insensitive filesystem optimizations are enabled on FreeBSD. *** Builtin applications - WineCfg supports querying and modifying the configured Windows version through the command line with a new /v option. - The Shell Folders configuration in WineCfg also supports the Downloads and Templates folders. - The removable drive autodetection has been removed in WineCfg, now that the dbus dynamic device support is stable. - The FSUTIL tool supports a 'hardlink' command to create hard links. - The FIND tool supports searching multiple files, in addition to standard input. - The WHOAMI tool is implemented to display the current username. *** Development tools - Winegcc supports generating PDB files when building PE DLLs, for compatibility with Windows debuggers. - DbgHelp supports GNU-style debug information also in PE files. - Winegcc can generate an import library directly when building a DLL, with the '-Wl,--out-implib' option. - The various build tools also look for include and library files in paths relative to the tool binary, to allow relocatable Winelib installations. - The Resource Compiler (wrc) and Message Compiler (wmc) use the external NLS files for codepage conversions. If necessary, the path to the external files can be specified with the '--nls-dir' option. - There are various improvements in the gdb proxy mode in WineDbg, including support for hardware watchpoints, and for loading symbols from PE modules. - The Message Compiler (wmc) handles the Unicode BOM to detect the input file format. - The Resource Compiler (wrc) has a '--utf8' option to specify UTF-8 input, as an alternative to putting #pragma codepage inside the file. - The IDL compiler (widl) supports a WinRT mode, and various constructs specific to that mode. - The IDL compiler (widl) supports custom attributes in type libraries. *** Build infrastructure - Makefiles are no longer recursive; a single Makefile is generated to build the entire tree, with correct dependencies between modules. - Automake-style silent build rules are supported. They are disabled by default, but can be enabled by passing the '--enable-silent-rules' option to configure. - The new LLVM-MinGW compiler is supported for PE cross-compilation. - Building with the Clang compiler in MSVC mode is supported. - A '-syscall' entry point flag is supported in spec files, to generate NT-style system call entry points. *** Miscellaneous - The Mono engine is updated to version 5.1.1, containing the open sourced parts of the WPF framework, and initial replacements for some of the closed source parts. - Most modules have been converted to use wide-character string constants like L"abc" instead of explicit arrays, for more readable code. - Many of the less common timezones (for various remote islands) are supported. - Listviews and image buttons are supported in MSI installers. - There is initial support for the Print Ticket API. *** New external dependencies - The LibUSB library is used to implement the USB driver. - The VkD3D-Shader library is used to translate Direct3D shaders to SPIR-V shaders for the WineD3D Vulkan renderer. - The Curses, GLU, and Zlib libraries are no longer used.
My city has been cutoff from the world and overrun with monsters. I have a set of rules to stay alive. HOLY SHIT & A MR. BAILEY EXTRAVAGANZA...oh, and also Rule #10 I guess
Eli here, yada yada, you know the drill. Great, now that we’ve got that out of the way, I’d like to start with: holy shit. Holy shit, y’all. Holy fucking shit. Let me elaborate. Right after I wrote up my last story, I posted it, and then I opened up a new document in Microsoft Word. Mostly because I like to leave a document open all the time and type my thoughts into it. A virtual journal, of sorts. It helps me process things and think through my feelings; I like to imagine it as self-led therapy. (Considering my fragile mental state, it clearly doesn’t solve everything, but it certainly doesn’t make things any worse). Anyway, all this to say that I had a Word document open, like I usually do. And like I often do, I left the room before typing anything to get a snack, and when I returned, that’s where the holy shit comes in. Because, guys: there was writing on the page. It said this: sorry can’t talk. might be noticed. would be taken away. can type. don’t say anything. And no, it wasn’t a ghost or an invisible monster or something. Because guess who was sitting right next to the keyboard, his fluffy tail curled around his feet, staring at me with his intelligent eyes? If you guessed Mr. Bailey, well, first of all, it wasn’t that hard based on my last sentence. But also, you’d be right. That’s correct, friends: holy shit, because Mr. B apparently 1) understood me when I tried to set up a communication system, 2) can, in fact, communicate, but won’t do it verbally because it “might be noticed,” 3) knows something about us being listened to and/or watched, and 4) to reiterate, can basically fucking talk. Now, his words on the document said not to say anything in response, and damn, I can’t tell you how hard I had to bite my tongue to keep from saying that string of holy shits out loud. I think I’ll have a dent in my tongue for the rest of my life. Somehow I managed, and I sat down at my computer, and I typed back. It took him longer to respond since he essentially walked across the keyboard to type, stepping precisely on certain keys. And then I had to wait for him to finish, letter by letter, until I could respond. It only took a few back-and-forths for me to realize that this was wildly inefficient, so I gestured for him to wait. Then we ventured out to that utterly decimated Best Buy and scavenged in the broken glass and bodies until we found another keyboard. Did you guys know that you can hook up two keyboards into one computer, and once it calibrates, the computer can accept input from both of them, nearly simultaneously? Well, you can. And that’s what I did. So now Mr. Bailey has his own keyboard, and we can type back and forth with less waiting and transition time. Now, I bet you’re all wondering what he said. I have his permission to post part of our conversation here (I saved the Word document, obviously, because it’s not every freaking day your cat begins to talk to you). So I’ll post some direct fragments. I’m also going to relay a story he typed out for me, but I’m going to edit and dramatize it, because it took him forever to type it out, and even then he only used sentence fragments and I pieced the details together. I think he’d like a more polished version of that part. (He meowed in agreement as he read that over my shoulder). A few things before I continue my Mr. Bailey extravaganza post. First of all, isn’t my cat the coolest thing in existence? Like seriously. I thought he was the best before, but now I’m pretty damn sure there’s no animal cooler than him in the entire world. Can your pet talk and use a computer? No? Didn’t think so. Guess Mr. B is cooler. Sorry, I don’t make the rules. Second, he knows surprisingly good English. I assume from reading over my shoulder as I write journal entries to myself or stories to share with you guys, and from listening to me talk. (I know you didn’t hear that, but he meowed in agreement to that too). But he doesn’t really use capital letters or punctuation other than periods, except when Word edits stuff automatically, so don’t criticize his grammar when I include direct quotes, okay? I mean, he’s pretty self-confident with a healthy ego, but no one likes unhelpful criticism over the internet. And he’s a motherfucking cat who can type, so give him a break. Third, I think this ties in well to Rule #10. If you guessed that’s another general rule rather than a specific monster-oriented one, you’d be correct. Rule #10: Not everything is as it seems. Don’t trust everything you see or hear, and don’t judge a book by its cover. Yes, I know, a tired cliché. And you’re also probably like, Eli, isn’t that rule covered in the Ashley rule, or the MJ rule? Well, both yes and no, and also, shut up. Those rules deal specifically with the food created by Ashleys or the humans imitated by MJs; Rule #10 is simply a more general version with a broader scope, and it encompasses a lot more things. For instance, screams in the distance? Could be human, but probably not. Probably monsters fighting and/or trying to draw people out. So don’t trust it. Dead bodies in the street? Probably human corpses, but if they’re not pretty rotten by now, maybe not. MJs have been known to play dead to get you to come closer to them. So don’t trust them. Purple flowers in the ground? Might be actual flowers, but might be the eyes of a Sandra. (No, seriously. I almost stepped on one once because it was camouflaged, laying on the ground. I barely got my earplugs before it was on its feet and singing. That was a close call). Don’t trust them. And yes, a cat that seems smarter and acts not quite like a cat? Maybe not 100% a normal cat. Still a cat, not a monster…but not a normal cat. So without further ado, here’s the first part of our conversation, directly from that document, with minor edits for clarity. Mr. Bailey: sorry can’t talk. might be noticed. would be taken away. can type. don’t say anything. Eli (after freaking out silently for several minutes): So you can talk? You understand me? Mr. Bailey: yes. Eli: But you waited this long to talk to me? Mr. Bailey: didn’t always know how. learned from listening and watching you. Eli: Cool, cool. But you don’t want a system of meowing because you “might be noticed”? Mr. Bailey: yes. Eli: Well, that’s great. Who might notice and why would they take you away? Mr. Bailey: don’t know who. but they always listen. sometimes watch too. Eli: What do you mean? How? Are they watching now? Mr. Bailey: listening devices in dome. can hear everything. cameras in monsters and some buildings. not this building. always listen, sometimes watch. Eli: How do you know that?? Mr. Bailey: can hear them whirring and clicking. hear them transmit in dome, hear them under monster skin. At this point I told him he was a badass, and then asked for significantly more clarification and details, because as you can imagine, my head was fucking spinning so hard it was in going into orbit. I won’t directly relay the rest of the somewhat repetitive conversation, but here’s the gist: Mr. B thinks there are audio transmitters all over the dome, too tiny to see, that relay any noise in the entire dome back to whoever is running this shitshow. There aren’t cameras in the dome, at least as far as he can tell, but there are cameras spread out around the city, and in almost every monster. He first noticed something weird pretty early on, when he heard clicking – like a camera shutter opening and closing – in a dead monster body, and some investigation and focused listening led him to hear the same sound in almost every monster we’ve ever come across. Which is a really comforting realization. Once he realized the sound their cameras make, he listened for it everywhere. The house I was staying in before this one had cameras, and he wanted me to leave. Looking back, it makes sense; we only stayed there for two weeks because he was constantly freaking out and driving me crazy. At the time I thought he didn’t like a smell or something, but I guess he was acting like a psycho on purpose to get me out of there. When we got to this neighborhood, he thoroughly examined every inch of the house before settling in, and I thought that was just him doing his normal cat thing, but no. He was checking for cameras. What a little goddamn genius. That’s why typing is safer than some kind of meowing system. He’s worried if they know he’s onto them, they’ll come after him, or maybe both of us. Maybe they’ll decide whatever sick game they’re playing should come to an end and just fucking apocalypse us. He just doesn’t know, so he figured he should play it safe. I support that, because I too would like to make it out of here alive. That was my New Year’s resolution, after all, and I intend to keep it. I’d love to go to a functioning restaurant again before I die, if nothing else. And before you panic about my posts being monitored too, don’t worry. I hide my IP address and use different VPNs. I figured out how to do all that before I even started posting, because I had theories about being watched and didn’t want to risk my stories being seen by the assholes controlling all this. Not to mention that internet and cell service are so shitty that maybe it hasn’t even occurred to them that I’m trying to communicate outside the dome, and maybe they’re not checking. Who knows? Depends how dumb they are. I hope they’re dumb. All this to say that posting here should be pretty safe. But thanks for your concern. There was also a lot of conversation about how he came to be…well, a little more than your average cat. Now is the time for me to relay that story. Just like with my own stories, let me take you back. This time, all the way back, to the very first day this all happened, aka the day I saw my family torn apart in front of me, aka the day I don’t want to relive, but am okay with reliving from Mr. Bailey’s view. This part of his story all took place before we crossed paths anyway. It probably happened while I was seeing my family torn apart in front of me, come to think of it. But I’m not going to think of that little detail. You may remember that I fled to the pet store and found Mr. Bailey the night this all started. That leaves about ten hours between the descent of the monsters and our meeting. During those ten hours, a lot of shit went down. I mean, seriously. I know I’ve used the term “all hell broke loose” several times, but this was the original hell breaking loose. The big one, the one where hell may as well have actually opened up all its doors and let out its demons, because things went south about as quickly as I imagine they would with demons running around. It was about noon when the dome appeared. I don’t know if it descended or rose from the ground or fucking shimmered into existence, because I didn’t see it happen, and whatever it did, it did fast. Mr. Bailey doesn’t know either; like any normal weekday, he was inside the pet store, dozing on a cat bed up on a shelf. Then the monsters appeared. No one knows where exactly they came from, either. But it was chaos. Bloody, horrific chaos. None of us had ever seen any of these monsters before, obviously, so none of us knew how to fight them. Hell, I’m pretty sure most of the population didn’t believe in monsters until they were being eaten by them. I’m not going into detail right now about the terrors I witnessed, because this isn’t my story. Also because I don’t want to. My self-therapy isn’t good enough to make me want to discuss my family’s death or Rule #1 yet. (Stay tuned to see if my mental health improves or plummets! Only time will tell). Mr. Bailey remembers vague bits and pieces of the first few minutes. People running by the store screaming; unfamiliar creatures that smelled like death chasing them; sounds of bones crunching and claws ripping into flesh. The store owner panicked when he saw what was happening. Who wouldn’t? But instead of trying to hide – he hadn’t been noticed in the empty little store yet – he decided to make a run for it. His car was right out front, after all. Literally ten steps from the door. He called Mr. Bailey to come, and though he was scared and confused, Mr. B listened. This was his owner; the man had raised and cared for Mr. Bailey since he was a kitten. And Mr. B loved him. He wasn’t about to abandon him now. The store owner grabbed his keys and raced for his car, Mr. B at his side. They made it inside, but not much further. As the owner put his keys in the ignition, the car shook and an awful half-growl, half-screech that would come to be recognizable as the distinctive sound of a Caleb surrounded them. A Caleb appeared at the driver’s side, and neither of them had time to react before it smashed its fist through the window. The owner tried to shove it away, but if that tactic worked, well, there’d be a lot more people still alive. The Caleb started scratching and clawing at anything it could reach, which happened to be the owner’s chest and arms. Long slashes blossomed across his torso and blood flew as both the owner and the Caleb flailed, painting the windshield red. And Mr. B couldn’t stand by and watch. He always was braver than most cats, and at that moment he was pissed off, scared, and threatened by the monster attacking the person he loved. That was enough for him to leap across his owner and latch himself onto the Caleb, digging his claws in. The Caleb shrieked, probably more surprised than hurt, and stumbled backwards. As it swung its long arms, trying to grab Mr. B, he clawed his way up the Caleb’s chest to its head. And then he just started scratching and biting any piece of the Caleb near him: skull, arms, face. The Caleb almost got ahold of him a couple times, but Mr. B held on for dear life and clawed its hands enough to make it temporarily draw back. Then Mr. B, mostly by chance, struck gold: in his flurry of teeth and claws, he happened to stick a paw in one of the Caleb’s eye sockets, and since it was already there, he started scratching the ever-living shit out of that empty hole where an eye should be. Maybe not quite as good as a laser, but it was effective enough. Smoke began to exude from the eyehole. The Caleb shrieked and flailed wildly, apparently so distraught by the pain that its swinging arms now didn’t even come close to knocking Mr. B off. It seemed to be working, and Mr. B’s paw was twisted at a weird angle and hard to pull out anyway, so he just kept scratching around in the eye socket. Thank God he did. The Caleb staggered backwards, still shrieking, until its heels hit the curb and it fell hard onto its back, Mr. B still holding on tight. Luckily, he was more on its face than the back of its head by this point. I say luckily, because when the Caleb hit the concrete, it hit hard enough to crack its skull open. Mr. B was splashed with thick purple Caleb blood and little bits and chunks of Caleb brain. (Yes, they apparently do have a brain, but let’s not dwell on that surprise). He finally withdrew his claws and stepped off the dead Caleb, giving himself several quick licks to smooth his fur and remove at least a little of the mess. He looked over to his owner, who was still sitting in the car, bleeding profusely but alive. He had been watching, and when Mr. B emerged victorious, his terrified and pained expression turned to a smile. He looked at Mr. Bailey and said, “You saved my life, Mr. B! You’re the best goddamn cat there ever was. Come on, get back here, we gotta get out of here!” And Mr. Bailey understood him for the first time. He stood there on the curb for a second, trying to make sense of how he knew what a human was saying…and he stood there a second too long. Suddenly, another Caleb was leaping over the car from its passenger side. Mr. Bailey let out a yowl, but he was too late. The Caleb was already at the broken driver’s side window, and Mr. B’s owner was caught off-guard; Mr. B was still much too far away to help when he heard the scream and a horrible ripping noise. He couldn’t see what had happened with the Caleb in between him and the car, but he saw more blood spray across the windshield, and he listened to the scream cut off, and he knew it was over. He kept going, though, because he was hoping to get revenge. He took a flying leap and landed on the Caleb’s back, clawing it and yowling in fury as he tried to reach its head, since he had now put together that the eye was a weak point (he wasn’t sure why he was thinking so much more distinctly than he ever had, but now wasn’t the time to question it). Unfortunately, this Caleb was apparently more flexible, because it managed to reach its long arms around, grab him, and fling him off before he ever got to the top of that nasty Caleb summit. He landed on the curb near the dead Caleb, and the alive Caleb started to walk over to him, making its awful noise. Mr. B thought he was done for. He probably would have been, except there was a scream from the street; both Mr. Bailey and the Caleb turned to see a woman, fleeing from what would eventually come to be known as a Brent. Luckily for Mr. Bailey but not so luckily for the woman, the Caleb decided she was more appealing, and it turned and sprinted after her, leaving Mr. Bailey lying on the curb, out of breath but unwounded. The only evidence that Mr. B had tried to get his revenge were a series of crazed claw marks down its back. Mr. Bailey made himself go look at his owner briefly; his head had been torn off and was sitting on the passenger’s seat. He sat there for a moment and paid his respects, but then he couldn’t bear to look at it anymore, and he went back inside. At this point, Mr. Bailey was devastated, but he was also confused and intrigued, because he was suddenly seeing everything differently than he ever had before. He was thinking in a way that he assumed humans usually thought, and he swore he could read a few of the words printed on food bags and toys around the shop. His empty food bowl was printed with, “MR. BAILEY” and he was pretty sure that was his name. It was a “weird process” (his words) that he doesn’t think he can adequately explain to humans who have always had that capacity for thought and logic. But he would like to emphasize that it was very strange, and very confusing; yet it also provided a distraction from the fact that he had just failed to save his owner. So he thought about it, and looked down at his brain- and blood-covered fur, and came up with his theory. He swallowed Caleb flesh and blood while attacking it; he knows he did, because he bit it anywhere he could reach, and he was in too much of a frenzy to worry about spitting anything out. Then, he was splashed with its brains, and during his quick wash, he suspects he ingested more blood and at least a few small pieces of the brain. It’s all only his theory, of course. But it’s the best one he has, and I sure don’t have anything better, so I’m on board. It seems like something he swallowed – the flesh, the blood, the brains, or some combination of the three – made him more than your average cat. He says he was thrilled when I got there a couple hours later. He remembered me from my visits to the store when I was younger. He was scared and lonely, too, and he wasn’t sure what he was going to do in the following days; me walking in changed that. I told him how much he comforted me that first night, and he said I comforted him too. I guess I never realized that we’d both lost our families that day. As for the Caleb that killed his owner? Don’t worry. Apparently it stuck around the area, because it was the same Caleb that attacked me in the pet shop the very next morning…and therefore the same one I killed by discovering the magic of laser pointers. Mr. B recognized it when it charged at me; he saw the claw marks on its back. And you know the rest. He helped me take it down, and it was not only his revenge, but the start of a beautiful monster-killing partnership. Anyway, Rule #10. Things aren’t always what they seem. He may not just be a cat, but he sure is pretty great. I have a conversation partner now too, kind of, as long as we’re careful. Beats writing a journal to myself. I’m worried about all the monitoring shit, obviously, but that’s a problem for after I share this post. To end the Mr. Bailey extravaganza, I will say this: I love him. I’m glad we have each other. He’s a badass. I’ll let him reply to strangers on the internet if he really wants to, because he deserves it. …And yes, I may really feel all those things, but you can bet your ass he encouraged me to type them .
THEY DELETED R/NAKD... BUT I SAVED ALMOST ALL OF THE NAKD RUN POST!!
MY FELLOW TARDS, THEY DELETED NAKD AND THIS MEANS WAR While this post is a little different from the NAKD Run that I originally made in NAKD, I copied almost all of my DD in case they tried to go nuclear like this!
THIS IS BIGGER THAN CASHING OUT AT $5, $10, OR EVEN $15 NOW, THEY WANT WAR
MY FELLOW NAKD PIRATES OF WALL STREET, I’m going to preface this entire thing by reminding everyone to be skeptical of everything online and that I’m not a financial advisor, nor does any of this constitute financial advice, I just like this stock. Lots of people are talking about making this happen, but to be real; the only way to make this happen at the magnitude we’re all hoping for is if we can do a couple of things:
This group needs to grow like a wildfire. NAKD has 15k+ members and we were gaining traction, clearly the hedgies are scared
A hashtag is needed for visibility on social media #NAKD -Visibility leads to awareness -Awareness leads to education -Education leads to the empowerment to make your own educated decision
Diamond hands all around or everyone’s fucked
Everyone do your own due diligence as your own individual investor.
MarketWatch Intraday Charts Stats for $NAKD as of most recent post update (Feb 3rd at 9:16 AM EST):
SHORTED SHARES AS OF 1/15: 31.26M SHARES, per MarketBeat.com
SHS FLOAT: 41.61M per FinViz.com
SHORT FLOAT: 75.16% per FinViz.com
PUBLIC FLOAT: 95.61M SHARES per MarketWatch Intraday Charts
% OF FLOAT SHORTED: 32.69% per MarketWatch Intraday Charts
Naked Brand Group (Nasdaq:NAKD) is an Australian intimate apparel and swimwear company.
NAKD Originally Almost Delisted Due Struggling to Maintain $1 Compliance, Attracting Short Interest
2020 was a hard year, and it didn’t treat Naked Brand Group any better than it did the rest of us. At the end of December last year, $NAKD was down 90%. The stock hadn’t seen the dollar mark since mid-June, and needless to say things were not looking good. In fact, just prior on November 27th, Naked Brand was given only 180 days (until May 24, 2021) to regain compliance with the SEC’s minimum share price ($1). When a stock is doing very poorly and investment brokerages believe that it will decline, they’re able to borrow shares and preemptively sell shares that they don’t own (which they’re required to buy back at some point, as they’re borrowed). Their idea is that later when the stock decreases as they’ve called for, they then buy back those borrowed shares at a lower price at a massive profit. Hedge funds pinpointed Naked Brands Group as a struggling brand as a sure-fire failure, and on January 15th, 2021, a ridiculous amount of shares were short sold; 31.26M shares, a trade valued at $43.45M according to MarketBeat’s Short Interest History . At the time, this position short-sold 75% of the total number of outstanding shares that’s available to be offered to the public, called the public float. The percentage of the public float being sold short is also called the short float. This absurdly high short-float is important to note, because even an 16-18% short-float is considered to be high. As a matter of fact, hedge funds were actively trying to do the same thing to Elon Musk at one point, when Tesla had a short interest rate around that level. This crazy position creates the attraction for contrarian (or counter-culture) investors because of the potential for that stock to rebound in light of things like a change in market perceptions, and the monumental potential for gain if the incorrect investors who short-sold are forced to buy back their position at a higher price (or cover their position), driving the stock’s price up. This is also referred to as a short-squeeze. If this potential short-squeeze continues and picks up, these incorrect brokerages will be forced to cover their positions after a series of market manipulation tactics during which they’ll try to drive the price down in an attempt to convince contrarian investors to panic sell through this short-sell. This is where things start to get crazy. What can happen after a short squeeze starts: If the short-selling brokerages and the contrarian investors both hold through the short positions’ expirations, a dramatic series of spikes will occur as the market price tries to breakout as both positions continue to increase leverage and neither break. The short-squeeze then transitions into a battle of who can outhold who; whichever of the two camps sells first between essentially loses the metaphoric tug-of-war. At this point, the short-selling institutions are often able to sell their short-positions back and forth to each other in quick succession even more, not only increasing their leverage and the eventual intensity of the outcome, also simultaneously tricking the market algorithm into thinking that there’s a massive panic sell going on (also called a Ladder-Short Attack). The short-selling traders’ hopes are to trick the short-squeezing traders’ to then believe that algorithmic false-response, and then to have an actual sell-off occur, which will allow them to then close our their positions at an even higher potential gain than before.
HOWEVER
If those short-positions are doubled-down on and the contrarian camp holds, the stock’s market price volatility will become amplified to that same magnitude. This allows the possibility for the massive price drive upward, because once the stock price hits new, groundbreaking relative extreme highs or lows (sometimes called **breakout points) the stock market price will attempt to break out of its range. Which direction it breaks, largely depends on if the contrarian party buys and hold, or sells at that point. Contrarian Investors buying and holding in this situation would almost definitely drive the stock price continually up following breakouts in this hypothetical situation Contrarian Investors Largely Selling in this situation would almost definitely drive the stock price down continually following breakouts in the same hypothetical Which is what we’re seeing with these early YOLO stocks. Also do keep in mind that over its lifetime, NAKD has had a crazy range already... NASDAQ’s historical data shows from late-June 2018 a price range of almost $700 with a high of $1136 (Page 37 of NAKD’s Price History lists June 20th^ through July 3rd^) but NAKD was listed far before 2018, and its lifetime range goes far beyond $1000 27 times that number, to be exact... NAKD listed as high as $27,000/share on May 31st, 2013according to Google’s historical charts (which allow us to go back further than NASDAQ’s official site) I’m not saying it’s 100% impossible for the stock to hit $27k, but I do want to note that price was likely caused from a big reverse split they did at that time (just commenting that the lifetime range is definitely there).
Not to mention that MarketBeat’s Short Interest History tool also shows the Short Interest Change vs Previous month as 196.30% (A LITERAL DOUBLE-DOWN!)
OFFERING INFO: Naked Group Closes $50M Registered Direct Offering
On February 1st, Naked Brand Group (Nasdaq:NAKD) announced that it had entered into securities agreements with certain institutional investors (AKA the big boys) for the issuance of 29.415M of its ordinary shares at a price of $1.70 per share, with estimated net proceeds of $46.9M to the company, all according to customary NASDAQ rules. read more about the deal’s closing on Naked’s Investor Relations Page What does this mean for $NAKD? It means that there’s some big boys getting in on the action, not only potentially buying up these shares to get in on the squeeze, but also who are invested heavily in the idea that the stock doesn’t go below $1.70/share
Naked Group’s Intentions to Restructure from Retail to eCommerce
Starting January 21st, Naked Group has been been very clear about their intentions to shift from the retail model as a revamp to accelerate their existing eCommerce platform (not dissimilar to how GameStop is planning a shift, ironically). According to their investor relations page: “Naked will seek to leverage its brand, platform and build out proprietary technology to meet the needs of consumers in today’s digital world.” For that reason, NAKD signed a non-binding and non-exclusive term sheet to divest itself of its Benson subsidiary, allowing Naked to focus on it’s profitable eCommerce business [rather than its dying retail channel]. The divestment of The Bendon subsidiary would be accomplished through its sale to a group composed of existing management of Naked, including Mr. Davis Rice (Chairman of Naked). Justin Davis-Rice also went on to say that ”This divesture will allow us to remove all group debt and transition into a pure-play, technology-rich eCommerce platform focused on intimate apparel with our existing digital business, FOH Online. FOH Online currently generates annualized revenue of approximately $20M in the USA.” Naked intends to enter into a definitive agreement for the sale in February 2021, to seek shareholder approval foe the transaction in March 2021, and to close in April 2021. Obviously, there can be no assurance that a definitive agreement will be completed or that the conditions laid forth in the agreement won’t have amendments made to it. but I like this stock SOURCE:Naked Brands Investor Relations Page All of the above, coupled with the fact that the stock is still very cheap compared to other similar tickers (like the now astronomical GME), makes it easier for people to put money into – even if they have money elsewhere If you made it down this far, thanks for giving this post a read!
REMEMBER WHY WE’RE HERE
THE MARKET ISN’T FREE UNTIL THE WHOLE MARKET IS FREE
THIS ISNT ABOUT DETRACTING FROM OUR SISTER STOCKS
THIS IS ABOUT GOING FULL TARD SEND ON A STOCK WE LIKE
FUCK THE SUITS
BY REQUEST: LIST OF RETAIL TRADING APPS THAT TRADE NAKD WITHOUT RESTRICTION AS OF 2/1 Fidelity, WeBull, Trading 212, eTrade tl;dr I’m not an advisor and this isn’t advice, but I did some research to figure out what the heck was going on with GME and AMC and it led me down a rabbit hole of DD and conclusions that I’d like to get some objective feedback on, whether get feedback be technical or a 1-10 tard rating.
DD on GME. Don't forget. It's not over unless you hear the bell.
Hi guys, Some of you seem to have forgotten why we are buying everything we can from GME/AMC and holding it and need to be reminded. - NOTHING HAS CHANGED - IGNORE THE FUD - IT'S ONLY A LOSS IF YOU SELL. - THERE ARE WAYS OUT OF THIS WITHOUT SELLING IF IT DOES GO WRONG. (They just suck a bit) Also it seems that this needs to be said... I'm not a financial advisor, nor a professional trader, this is not financial advice, just my opinion based on a lot of endless hours of reading everything there is about GME and AMC.
tHe SqUeEzE iS oVeR
If it's over, then i don't think anyone would mind us holding our shares. Why are people so loud to tell me to sell? Conversely, why am i here telling you to hold? Because the squeeze will happen, unless you listen to the fud and sell. While some clever regular normal investors would say that SELLING is the 'wise' and 'correct' thing to do, we're not regular normal investors with real true diverse portfolios made of 30% bonds, 20% commodities, 50% stocks, we're the new generation that doesn't play based on those rules of normalcy and risk management. Make sure you understand this. Unless you buy a company's shares based on EBITDA and other financials, normal financial advice may not be for you.
It's not over, it's never ogre
Did you already forget everything that was said by: - Mark Cuban - Elon Musk - Kjetill Stjerne, Remember the short squeeze? Yeah that's what it was all about. Nothing's changed.
9'th of February FINRA report
Whilst FINRA themselves likely won't distort the contents of the report, the data reported TO FINRA by brokers and others can be distorted intentionally. As a result, the final report CAN show incorrect numbers. Yes even this can be distorted. At least it won't be fully falsified. Beware of shills telling you that it's all OVER because the report was supposedly in their opinion showed that the Squeeze is Over. Take everything with 2 spoonful's of salt and more before accepting all information. Read more DD's after that, see more comments by individual users, check news articles are pushing. FINRA February 9'th report contains short data from the 15'th of January to the 29'th of January. That's 9 missing trading days. Data could be even more inconclusive than what I'm mentioning above.
Total GME/AMC share floats, short interest are critical
There's some ok data on iborrowdesk and fintel.io on what the short float might be on both AMC and GME. https://iborrowdesk.com/report/GME https://iborrowdesk.com/report/AMC https://fintel.io/ss/us/amc https://fintel.io/ss/us/gme Someone with a Bloomberg terminal can take a look at GME and AMC and clearly as day post today's "LOCKED OUT" AMC and GME shares e.g the amount of shares that are being held/bought/delivered. The amounts i'm seeing across the board are indicating that we're constantly gobbling up all shares. On Friday we almost gobbled up everything on GME but then afterhours 700k more appeared out of thin air. No matter, i plan to buy more and i'm sure other people plan to do the same. On a personal note:I use Saxobank to trade. On Friday i tried to buy an 800c expiring on the same day. The collateral needed for a long position was 210% and for a short position was 290% where before this was miniscule... Is this not an indication of where we are in terms of the squeeze? That's a lot of collateral...
Short Covered?
I don't believe for a minute they've managed to fully cover everything, someone must have been caught with their pants down. Sure many must have shorted at $300 and at $400 to average down their losses, but i believe it doesn't matter as much as some people are making it out to be. They still have to buy shares to cover and with the float possibly being ~1 million shares left out of 71mil, there ARE shorts out there that MUST have been caught in a bad position during all this. You can't say everyone perfectly shorted at the top of the first squeeze. There's still good margin for the real squeeze to happen. Other squeezes happened with less. Any data regarding total share float that you find on sites like yahoo finance, or ortex or others are mostly inaccurate, out of date, misleading. Wait for tomorrow's data and even then, see what people think of it. There IS a place on a Bloomberg terminal where you can TRULY see how many shares are locked out. I'm calling upon you Bloomberg Terminal Bonobos to post the following data: - Locked out shares for GME and AMC - Institutional ownership/changes of ownership for GME/AMC shares. It will be interesting to see how and which of these institutions are 'lending' or selling shares to others.
Supply and Demand
This is literally what we would all like it to boil down to. The basics, the 101 of supply and demand. You're a short that was caught with your pants down, you didn't cover at all at 300-400 or you covered at a terrible price cause you slept in that day. - If persons keep buying GME and just gobble up all the float, shorts will have to pay what persons want them to pay. - If institutions sell their stakes to the market, persons can just gobble those up too. - The more paper hands sell, the more pure diamond hands remain the more we can predict future volume will be lower and lower since persons like the stock. - The more persons reach full GME share ownership, the more easier naked shorting can be exposed cause you can't just do naked shorting on a stock that's fully owned by persons. If you do that, it's not just suspicious anymore, it's straight out 100% obvious. Fast forward to outrage and results.
https://isthesqueezesquoze.com/ This is not an official website for the squeeze nor is it a ticker towards the squeeze. I think it would be a good idea to erase that notion from your minds and distance yourselves from this type of hopium. https://iborrowdesk.com/report/GME While this site looks nice pretty and fancy, it's based on some data some dude made. It has a patron link on the top for donating to the guy who made it. Kudos to him for the site, but again, let's be wary and take things with a tablespoon of salt. https://wherearetheshares.com/ This is probably a decently legit site for reporting shares that have failed to deliver, but as with all things (including this post) take it with a grain of salt. Though i really think this one might be legit. https://www.gmedd.com/ gmedd sounds really nice and i want to believe that the low $60, med $90 and high $160 valuations for GME can be real, but as with all things, take it with a grain of salt. You don't know who wrote this stuff and for what purpose. I personally chose to partially believe it as GME now has no more debt and is going to restructure BIG TIME. These numbers are achievable (not in the short term).
You SHOULD be subscribed to SEC reports
This is one of the few true sources of real/true information about anything happening. Institutions take decisions based on what comes out on these within seconds or minutes. https://sec.report/TickeAMC https://sec.report/TickeGME Click and subscribe for e-mail notifications, do this for all companies you're really invested in. You know how sometimes some stock moons and you don't know why??? Because NEW SEC FILING FILLED, that's why. While most of us Bonobos can't read most of the mumbo jumbo in here and you don't need to do so, it's best to skim through and find the vital points on whether this is an earnings report, if it looks good (they put a few human readable lines in there, those are what you're looking for), or if it's a new shares announcement, expect dilution and drilling.
Fintel Data
That's my opinion. I'm subscribed to them and i use them as their info can't be found elsewhere unless you have god tier Bloomberg terminal access or to other big platforms. Here's some random screenshots (PIKSHURES) Short Shares Availability On Friday there were only 70k shares left to short on GME (forgive me and correct me if i'm reading this wrong). After hours someone dumped 700k and then today we're back up to 1.1 million shares available. I don't know how i feel about this except somewhat suspect... Short Interest / Borrow Rate I personally don't believe these numbers. These can be falsified with the advanced techniques hedge funds are using by opening future contracts at 800c to make it look like something else. Posting these regardless to address them. Institutionals owning GME Is likely true in my opinion, but not yet fully updated with the latest data. +5 days in the future is a long time to make real conclusions.
You haven't lost money unless you sell & the way out.
Again while clever bonobos with real portfolios will say this is wrong, i think it's not wrong because this stuff doesn't apply to us smooth brained bonobos. Sure you could sell with a massive loss and start from 0 and maybe make your money back in a reasonable amount of time, but i think the averaging down on your investment over time strategy can ALSO work, especially with GME's 0 DEBT and in my opinion INSANE restructuring. Yes these restructuring changes could take over a year to materialize and another 2-3 years to bear the amount of fruit we want to cover our losses and even make money or just sell with less of a loss than now, but it's a half decent strategy in my opinion and shouldn't be dismissed as the other bonobos say. I will: - Keep throwing part of my monthly salary into GME and AMC monthly. - Keep throwing any bonuses that come my way into GME and AMC. Because what else can i do? Sell and slide over like a loser, whimper and cry in a corner? No, grow some cojones and do something about it. Don't be complacent. Don't cry because Hedgefunds cheated hard. Do something about your non materialized loss.
Why not to sell?
- Selling it is what they want. - Hold on to the supply and they'll have to come to you when they have to cover their shorts. - It's a game of holding and waiting and weathering all this FUD. - Selling slowly ensures the squeeze never happens. - GME has no debt anymore and is restructuring. - Any institute doing research/DD on GME typically shows you a bad picture because the DD they do has to do with their current and past financials. Speculation is looked down upon institutional or at least they don't like it when you do it. GME has no more debt, i'll say it again.
Takeaway
While some smoothbrained bonobos are selling their shares with a loss to the hedgefund boys to cover cheaply and to drive the price even lower, i think it's best to keep up the "continue to buy", "average down" strategies until we eventually suck this baby dry of float shares. This may or may not apply to you depending on how much your loss is. I am in over 60% loss, and the strategy i'm choosing is to average down for the next few years. Cohen will not and should not issue new shares. He won't give a free pass to hedgies to cover their shorts when they tried to burry Gamestop and drive it into the ground. Some people are above money and MAYBE Cohen is. Let's see. About AMC, it's a Cinema chain. They also have 0 debt now due to what we did. It'll re-open after Covid, people will be too hyped and will watch too many movies, increased revenue blabla for 1-2 years until people remember that Cinemas are shit and will stop going there. Remember that AMC used to trade in the mid 30's pre-pandemic WITH DEBT. Where will it trade post pandemic WITHOUT DEBT. I think even if you bought at 16 and they dillutes their shares x 4, we're still going to be fine, but my outlook is that we'll need to get rid of AMC in a couple of years because that's when they'll probably fall into their old debt accumulating cycle unless they truly restructure like Cohen is doing with GME. My AMC money will eventually all end up in GME to bring my average down more, that's in 2 years. My position/s: I am 220k in on GME at 235 and 80k on AMC at 16.5 and i am not selling. I not only have hope in the squeeze, i believe it's happening. There's is too much to indicate differently. I'm slowly adding more and more to my position now that the price is really juicy. https://preview.redd.it/wbkuwdpz69g61.png?width=432&format=png&auto=webp&s=f13f7b91dcc21b1f2784458100d82d2d27cf24aa 🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍 I'M A BONOBO, NOT A FINANCIAL ADVISOR. THIS IS SHIT I CHECKED ON THE INTERNETS AND ARE MY CONCLUSIONS BLABLA YADA YADA ETC ETC. Follow me on my profile at Leenixus, currently banned due to WSB being weird over the past couple of weeks. 🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍 💎💎💎💎💎💎💎💎💎💎💎💎💎💎💎💎💎💎💎💎💎💎💎💎💎💎💎💎💎💎💎 👐 👐 👐 👐 👐 👐 👐 👐 👐 👐 👐 👐 👐 👐 👐 👐 👐 👐 👐 👐 👐 👐 👐 👐 👐 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
/ 20 Best Offline iphone (iOS) Games to Play Without Internet (2020) I may earn a small commission if you buy through the links in this website without any extra cost to you. My Recommendations however are not biased in any way. When it comes to modern mobile games, it appears that a constant internet connection is always a must. However, you sometimes want to play games offline for various reasons. And for those moments, we have the solution for you: a list of the best offline iOS games you can play without WiFi in 2020. Usually, […] Download For iOS. No Internet Simulator Games For iOS and Android. Simulator games are usually labeled as slow and boring by a lot of people mainly because they require proper time and dedication. Without both, the game would not play the way it is meant to be played. You can earn coins and keys and thereby earn points. You can also win a few goodies in the form of surprises. The game can be downloaded on a number of platforms. One of the most downloaded games, you can get it for your Android from Google Play Store or iOS from iTunes. Doodle Jump. It can be a fun game and suits to be the best among games without WiFi. They feature simple graphics that appear as if something scribbled on paper by a kid. And that is exactly the major selling point of the game. There are options for every type of gamer on iOS. If you want to play without being online, here are the best games for you. Download the games from the Android Play Store or Apple App Store and enjoy them on your phone without any internet data or WiFi. Cheers! If you've any thoughts on Top 20 Best Games to Play on your Mobile without WiFi Internet Offline Games , then feel free to drop in below comment box . Luckily, there are lots of games on Google Play Store and App Store that you can play without an internet or WiFi connection. In this article, we have made a list of 50 best offline mobile games that you can download on Android and iOS. Best offline games for Android and iOS You Should Play Right Now. Note: Many games are paid and you will have to purchase them from their respective store. The list also doesn’t represent any order. The prices may also differ from region to region. Without any further ado, here are some of the best offline games for Android and iOS to play. Typical mobile games are designed with short, repeated playthroughs in mind, often using free to play gaming structures that either limit how much you can play before having to shell out real money to continue (or choosing to wait for your resources to replenish without being able to play the game), or bother you with advertisements between playthroughs that can slow your phone down and really ... These offline games can be downloaded to any device and played offline- this means without internet connectivity stooge. The obvious advantages of Offline games are; you get to save precious data, you skip the “bad internet” drama and you can play and replay anytime you want. There are literally thousands of these games to choose from and we are going to show you a few “hot and trendy ...
Top 25 Best Games for Android & iOS 2019 - 2020 #2 ...
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